CHF/JPY big mover over the last 24 hours
Macro funds started dumping USD/CHF immediately after yesterday's FOMC and this heavy supply hasn't really let up since. JPY bears have returned in force with risk-on the obvious mantra. The market is already short of Yen but may have a long way to go before it gets to extreme levels.
CHF/JPY took out consolidation highs near 107.25 and spike highs near 108.70 (see chart). I don't know what's behind this move and won't touch it until I find out.
Good luck today and TGIF.
NZD/JPY biggest mover in quiet Asian trade
Slightly better-than-expected NZ GDP data and improved risk-sentiment after the FOMC combined to send the NZD/JPY higher. The previously important pivot at 80.50 (see chart) is now support and the next topside target is near 85.00.
EUR/AUD: Worth buying dips but keep stops tight below 1.4150
- Consistent corporate buying has been noted on every dip towards 1.4200 in recent weeks;
- Modest technical support seen around 1.4170 (see chart);
- Clean break below 1.4150 opens possibility of deeper falls towards 1.3860;
- Fed decision should be seen as risk-positive and therefore AUD-positive.
Decent risk-reward in buying dips towards 1.4170 with very tight stops below 1.4150.
Asian market open, Thursday September 19th
FXWW Asia Open Briefing 19-09-2013
The USD is on the the retreat and we can expect this trend to now continue. Imbalances in the crosses will be worked out over the next few sessions and then we can return to selling the USD on rallies.
USD/CHF: Macro-fund stops targeted below .9130
EUR/CHF has fallen since the Fed no-taper decision which doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense but it's all about where the stop-loss orders are. One of the big Prime Brokers reported yesterday that there were large macro-fund stops in USD/CHF and they have either been targeted, or the longs have gone to market. Next technical support in Swissy is at .9020.
Cable: Still targeting 1.63
I reduced my position pre-FOMC and will look to exit the balance on any exhaustive rallies towards 1.6300. This is all stop-loss buying at these levels and bulls will need to be patient and wait for the inevitable dips.
USD/JPY should find support on dips
USD/JPY should be somewhat less impacted than the other USD pairs by the unexpected Fed decision. Once the dust settles, risk pairs like AUD/JPY should receive a boost. There is trend-line support nearby in USD/JPY (see chart), near 98.00.
But don't rely on technicals in these markets, wait until the market quietens down.
AUD/USD Techs: Reaches 38.2% retracement
The 38.2% retracement of the big downmove from 1.0580 comes in at .9510 (see chart).
Chat-room update
Even the chat-room has been unable to get the market moving today :) By the way, the FXWW-Techs room is also now open and that is open to all to converse in.
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USD/JPY: 98.75, 99.00 (500MLN), 99.30, 35, 40, 50, 60, 100.00
AUD/USD: 0.9240-50, 0.9350-55. GBP/AUD: 1.7080. NZD: 0.8235
USD/CAD: 1.0220, 1.0300, 130325, 1.0400. USD/SEK: 6.4500. E/NOK 7.8500
GBP/USD: 1.5800, 1.5900, 1.5925, 1.6000. USD/CHF: 0.9350
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Cable: Reducing my position ahead of the Fed
This pair can now rally 300 pips straight north as I'm booking 1/2 my profit at 1.5910. I simply don't want to have any type of a large position heading into the Fed. I'm still running an intraday short position in USD/JPY but I have a very tight stop on that and will certainly cut it before the event. My only other trade is short EUR/GBP, but that's a longer-term play which shouldn't be affected by the Fed decision.
USD/JPY: I'm staying cautiously bearish
- Latest rebound stalling at a 61.8% rebound level (see chart);
- Taper already written into market pricing;
- Retail and professional markets remain quite long of this pair.
I know logic says that we should be long USD/JPY but risk-reward at moment is in favour of the bears. Keep stops tight either side; if long keep stops below 98.50 and if short, keep stops above 99.70.
AUD/USD outlook: Disappointed bears forced to run for cover
- Fed tapering is theoretically bullish for the USD and bearish for risk trades, in other words 100% bearish for AUD/USD. Unfortunately for the current-day bears, it's been a matter of sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact. This 'taper' expectation has been in the market since the AUD/USD was at 1.05 and we've seen it fall to .88 on the back of this. The clever guys sold early and took their profit. The vast majority as usual missed the move and got overly bearish at the bottom. Now we get the 'event-looming' short squeeze. Some things never change.
- The AUD has unwound some of its long-term strength on the crosses but I suspect that there could be more of the same against currencies like the NZD and the GBP yet to come. So exhaustive short-covering rallies in the AUD/USD will still offer very profitable swing trade opportunities imho but patience is needed as always.
- If you can't sleep without being short AUD heading into the FOMC, then maybe AUD/JPY offers the best risk-reward option? The market is short of Yen already and if the Fed forecasts are lower than expected, allied with the $20billion taper, then we could see the risk trades take a hard hit.
Asian market open
FXWW Asia Open Briefing 18-09-2013
The stronger NZD is the most noticeable change overnight but otherwise the market remains quiet ahead of the Fed. The committed day-trader will continue to look for 30 pip trading opportunities but the rest of us can enjoy a few more quiet sessions before the Taper-storm hits. Price action is still bearish on the USD in my opinion and I see no reason to change my view (but I will of course reduce my risk ahead of the event).
USD/JPY Techs: Bears can sell near 99.40 with tight-ish stop
(See chart).
I really like the risk-reward possibilities on this trade. Trend-line and Fibo resistance on the hourly chart at 99.40 and bears can try selling there with a tight stop.
AUD slightly lower after RBA minutes
http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2013/03092013.html
AUD/USD is back below .9300 after fairly neutral RBA meeting minutes. Yesterday's gap higher after the Summer's announcement started at .9260 and that's the obvious downside target with bids reportedly solid near .9270.
Asian market open, Tuesday September 17th
FXWW Asia Open Briefing 17-09-2013
I'm not sure what to make of the moves overnight, plenty of pre-Fed noise is the best description. The AUD threatened to break higher on the crosses before reversing sharply, the GBP gave up some ground on the crosses and the EUR and JPY stayed relatively quiet.
I'm staying in the USD-bear camp for now.