Intraday outlook, Wednesday September 25th

  • Very little on the economic calendar apart from NZ trade data, http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/;
  • Market remains very quiet and in consolidation mode as we await the next mini trend;
  • Yen crosses still look soft to me and the next 200 pips in pairs like AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are more likely to the downside imho;
  • These markets are likely to stay tight and choppy so wait for your preferred levels and don't jump in;
  • AUD/USD lows from Monday morning at .9350 will be an important level to watch today.

EUR/AUD: Looking to sell rallies towards 1.4460

This is a lovely technical set-up which delivered a quick 100 pip return yesterday so why not see if lightning can strike twice. There is a possible double-top formation with a neckline at 1.4460 (see chart). I'm looking to sell a failure at this level with fairly tight stops above 1.4485ish.


Market continues in choppy sideways consolidation

  • EUR/JPY: M&A chatter gave some support to the cross today and short-term support at 133.00 remains untested;
  • EUR dipped slightly after the IFO came in at 107.7, pretty close to expectations;
  • AUD has been a tiny bit soft all day in the face of softer equity markets but still remains inside recent ranges against all of the other majors;
  • EUR/CHF seems to have plenty of order interest close by with bids 1.2270/80 and stops below 1.2260 and again sub-1.2240;
  • The GBP is also in sideways mode and I expect the consolidation to continue in the short-term ahead of the next strong push higher.

EUR outlook: Sell rallies against GBP and JPY as market focus returns to EZ banking sector

  • EUR/CHF could join EUR/JPY (see JPY outlook) in a deeper retracement, with 1.2215 the target here;
  • EUR/GBP is also still solidly in a bear trend and selling rallies is heavily favoured;
  • Market focus is returning to the EZ banking sector and renewed 'flight of funds' from the EZ to London or Zurich cannot be discounted;
  • EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend but has lost momentum.

My medium-term sense is that the EUR and the USD will re-ignite their race-to-the-bottom.


AUD outlook: Positioning now neutral

  • Most interbank reports suggest that macro AUD positioning is now back at close to neutral levels;
  • AUD/USD technical resistance at .9510 (38.2% 1.0580/.8850) confirmed;
  • EUR/AUD technical resistance at 1.4450 (double-top neckline) confirmed;

I'd look to play a .9225/.9525 range in AUD/USD over the coming week and I think it's possible that we will see either end. The crosses are likely to throw up some good 100/150 pip trade opportunities (like EUR/AUD did yesterday) so be patient and attentive there.


JPY outlook: Selling short-term rallies in Yen crosses is preferred strategy

  • AUD/JPY looks to be in retracement mode and we could see a deeper dip towards 91.40 (see chart);
  • EUR/JPY also looks susceptible to a deeper retracement towards 131.50 or even 130.50 (see chart);
  • Positioning is the main factor for me in USD/JPY and with the market sitting long and momentum waning, I see a danger of a downside clean-out back towards 95.00.

Big Mac index, now the iPad index: AUD not overvalued

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/is-the-aussie-too-expensive-ipad-index-says-no-20130923-2u9jj.html

It used to be the big Mac index but now it's the iPad index we are looking to and the latter suggests that the AUD is not as overvalued as many might think.


EUR/AUD: Taking quick intraday profits off table

Nice to start the week with a quick 100 pip profit and I've taken my EUR/AUD shorts back at 1.4340. Will look to sell any intraday rallies back above 1.4400.


EUR/USD: Buying big dips still preferred but we may get one....

Overall I remain firmly in the USD-bear camp but of course there will be plenty of swings and roundabouts especially when cross plays take precedence. EUR/USD looks quite constructive technically and buying dips back towards 1.3410/50 looks like the obvious play. But, we may get a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction to the German election? I do not like the risk-reward in selling near current levels at 1.3535 but short-term bears might get some value in trying to pick any exhaustive intraday spikes looking for a quick 100/150 pip turnaround. That's how I favour trading it over the next few sessions.


AUD: Plenty of support levels nearby

  • AUD/USD: Previously pivotal resistance at .9320/50 should now provide strong support (see chart);
  • AUD/NZD: Marginal, stop-driven, push below 1.1200 this morning but this is still an important level;
  • AUD/JPY: Somewhat overbought based on steepness of up-trend but prior resistance at 93.00 does provide initial support (see chart);
  • EUR/AUD: Neckline of double-top comes in at 1.4450 (see previous story).

EUR/AUD technicals: Going short at 1.4440

Purely technical play here with the neckline of double-top coming in at 1.4450 (see chart). I'm short with a fairly tight stop above 1.4500 looking for a 1.4200 re-test in coming days.

Risk event today is the HSBC version of Chinese manufacturing PMI, but Japan is closed for a public holiday.


AUD/NZD: Stops targeted below 1.1200 in early trade

The EUR is slightly higher across the board after Angela Merkel won the German election, although the prospect of a coalition of sorts might temper bullish enthusiasm. Cable is presently unchanged from it's Friday close, USD/JPY is a slightly lower at 99.10, and AUD/NZD found some weak unprotected stops below 1.1200 and took them out.

Good luck today.


Technical issues in chat-room

We seem to be having some technical issues in the chat-room which we will try and rectify asap.


Signing off with latest from the chat-room

Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend; I'm off to the Sydney Opera House for an evening of Wagnerian music which I'm sure will be magnificent.

Here's the latest from the chat-room:

John Webb Market News

3:35:20 pmOPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3475, $1.3500(E400mn), $1.3575
* Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.35, Y98.50, Y99.35, Y99.40, Y99.50, Y99.75(large),
Y100.00(large), Y100.50, Y101.00
* Cable; $1.5850, $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6200
* Aussie; $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9455, $0.9460, $0.9550
* Euro-Aussie; A$1.4300
* Kiwi; $0.8220, $0.8235, $0.8300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0175, C$1.0250, C$1.0325, C$1.0340, C$1.0380

Sep 20

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

Sep 20

John Webb Market News

4:28:50 pmSeems to be some decent demand sitting between $1.3510/00 from what I read

Sep 20

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

Sep 20

John Webb Market News

4:39:18 pmE/$ demand seen from $1.3520 through to $1.3480 but main interest seen placed between $1.3510/00. Real money offers $1.3550...further offers on approach to $1.3570 ($1.3569 post FOMC high) with more seen into $1.3580. Above here and large barrier at $1.3600 moves into view. Buy dips says Citi, saw their technical team have again gone long E/$ (Thursday at $1.3554)  and have focus set on 2013 high at $1.3711....we'll see

Sep 20

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

4:39:56 pmRe: option expiries, 99.75 is 500 mil. and 100.00 is 700 mil. in size

Sep 20

Makhambet Ilyasov Kazkommertsbank

4:54:27 pmCiti Tech's GBP long recco from last week doing very well at mom

Sep 20

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

4:54:35 pmUSDJPY saw a very good bounce following Wednesday nights surprise and we are back above levels pre announcement...USDJPY obviously given some very good support as cross JPY turned very bid...many of the crosses actually posting long term highs now. However some calm was seen in Asia ahead of the Japanese long weekend and some profit taking was seen following such an aggressive bounce. Still plenty of interest from importers today who missed the chance yesterday, so fixing demand was quite high but the high correlation with the Nikkei took over and headed lower as equities drifted from their highs. Order book shows plenty of offers now as we approach 100, uncertainties over the U.S. Congressional debate over raising a debt ceiling and Germany election on Sunday, we may see the topside struggle so selling ahead of yesterday's high and again around 99.70 with a stop through 100 is how I would like to play it today.

4:54:41 pmOrder book showing some good size stops 99.50/55 then constant offers from 99.80 up to 100.05 in decent size. Again more offers 100.20/30. Downside is quite light with small stops through 99.00 with some bids coming in 98.85 and again at 65 then thins out until better size waiting as we approach 98.00

Sep 20

John Webb Market News

4:56:08 pmState St note says exporter sell interest at Y99.60 currently keeping a lid on $/Y

5:04:20 pmFed - Later this evening we get the first indications of the post no taper Fed. 17.55 Bullard (Voter - Dove) will be speaking on the economy and monetary policy (Q+A from audience and media) and ahead at 17.30 George (Voter - Hawk and dissenter) on the economy to the Manhattan Institute.

Sep 20

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

5:26:38 pmSocGen
09:24:46G10 Spot Trading
o Yen selling continues to be the trade of choice. Jpy crosses breaking decent levels, notably CHF/JPY having broken 3 yr highs and 23 year trend at 108.20/70
o USD/JPY - we gave up quickly on USD shorts through 99.00. This area now becomes support and we are looking to try and re-buy on dips towards 99.00/10 and 98.80. Leaving our s/l below 98.50 for a move to 100.00 and then 100.60 (channel top resist.)
o EUR/JPY powered through its 133.40 pivot. We again look to buy on dips at 134.00 and 133.50 with our s/l below 133.00 for a move breaking 135.00
o EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.3500. Market is continuing to look for pull backs to reestablish longs. We like to buy towards 1.3500 and 1.3450 with a s/l below 1.3400. Targeting 1.3600 and then 1.3660 (trend channel top)
o AUD/USD has seen a pull back from 0.9530 highs. We are tentative buyers on dips at 0.9420-30 with a tight s/l below 0.9400 for a move towards 0.9500-20

5:26:45 pmo GBP/USD - look to buy dips towards 1.6000, leave a stop below 1.5950. We saw weaker retail sales yesterday but this just encouraged bids to come back into the market.
o We stopped out in EUR/GBP on Euro up-move yesterday, but are tempted to re-sell. For the time being, we will wait for a further rally towards 0.8475 and then reassess
o EUR/CHF – despite ChfJpy, long against 1.2300 (200dma and trend support) provides decent risk reward


Merkel victory written in to the EUR

The market is expecting that Frau Merkel will win her 3rd general election and become German Chancellor again. The one big unknown is whether her smaller FDP coalition partners can gain enough of a percentage of the overall vote to be allowed to enter the parliament. If they don't, then she might be forced into a 'grand coalition' with the main opposition SPD party. Such events have happened before and Germany has thrived, but the initial impact might be EUR negative? Worth keeping in mind for Monday morning trade. The election is on Sunday.


USD/JPY: Bullish break-out confirmed

This is the chart that the USD/JPY bulls are looking at (see chart) and it does present quite a compelling case. In a perfect world we would wait for confirmation when 100.50 is broken and then buy dips for a move to 108. The world seldom works in perfect order but maybe it will this time.

Personally I'm leaving it alone as whilst it looks and feels bullish, the stories about already huge long positions in USD/JPY has me worried.


EUR/GBP in retracement mode

The cross has finally started to retrace after a reasonably big fall and the obvious targets are now at .8500 and .8535 (see chart). Extreme patience is required with this pair but I remain in the bear camp and am happy to sell rallies back towards these levels. Any short-term dips back towards .8390 will offer good risk-reward possibilities for short-term bulls.


AUD/USD outlook: Stuck between big technical levels

  • The 38.2% retracement of the big downmove from 1.0580 came in at .9510, pretty much yesterday's high;
  • Real money funds were noted sellers above .95 cents;
  • The previously pivotal .9335/50 will provide very strong support (see chart);
  • On the crosses, AUD/JPY is bullish but AUD/NZD looks bearish still.

Sounds like a perfect recipe for range trading and as we are currently close to the middle of the .9350/.9510 range, patience is again needed.