Asian market open, Wednesday Sept 11th.

FXWW Asia Open Briefing 11-09-2013

  • Looks like I should have held onto my AUD/JPY longs a bit longer;
  • USD/JPY has made strong bullish close above 100.25 with talk of Chinese buying;
  • Cable briefly peeked above 1.5750 but hasn't managed to close above there;
  • AUD/USD will run into severe resistance near .9350.

by Sean Lee

AUD/JPY: Time to book some profits

This trade has been good to me and I was lucky enough to get in at very good levels. There is solid resistance near 93.00 so I'm taking all but a tiny balance off the table and will now concentrate on my long cable play.

by Sean Lee

USD/JPY: Very large offers on interbank platforms

Reports in the FXWW-RM chat-room of very large offers every few pips above 100.00 in USD/JPY. Our hedge fund insider https://twitter.com/FXWW888 says that Goldman Sachs has been the big buyer but that the offers are totalling around $700 million at present.

by Sean Lee

AUD/JPY: Based on retail market positioning, it will struggle to break 93.00

  • USD/JPY market caught with stale longs (see data); 
  • Similarly the AUD/USD market might also struggle to move much higher (see data).

Obviously this is just one small cross section from one retail broker but if this data is an indication of market wide positioning then both AUD/USD and USD/JPY will struggle to break much higher.

 

by Sean Lee

AUD/USD: Sell orders reported starting .9270

  • Sell orders at .9270 and at regular intervals through .9350 (local bank);
  • EUR/AUD back near 1.4300 where corporate orders were reported yesterday;
  • AUD/JPY has significant resistance at 93.00 (I will reduce my long position on the approach).

by Sean Lee

Latest from the FXWW-RM chat-room

FXWW 888 FXWW Pty Ltd

5:40:59 amCS FX Strategist – Japanese portfolio flow monitor:

Sep 10

Sean Lee FXWW

7:08:50 amMorning all. More trailing stops reported above 1.4390 in EUR/AUD. Also plenty of sell orders being reported in the AUD/USD at regular intervals between .9250/.9350.

7:09:40 amUSD/JPY very steady overnight near 99.50, still prefer the buy-dips play

7:10:18 amCable of course will be aiming at 1.5750 resistance, a breach of which would put a double-bottom in place

Sep 10

FXWW 888 FXWW Pty Ltd

7:31:37 ammorn Sean

7:32:33 amAfter USDJPY, Nikkei, AUDJPY etc have all broken out of similar triangle patterns to the topside... guess we need to consider whether EURJPY is next..... https://www.tradingview.com/x/SsMHunPj/

Sep 10

Sean Lee FXWW

7:43:29 amGood point mate, nobody is bullish EUR which means it probably does break higher

Sep 10

FXWW 888 FXWW Pty Ltd

7:44:19 amyup worth keeping on the radar at least

Sep 10

Sean Lee FXWW

7:45:26 am[Screenshot2] | [DesktopObject2] AUD/USD techs show very steep s/t bull trend but stalling now at .9240. Lot of stops reported yesterday above this level yesterday. If bears can hold then we could see a nasty retrace lower. If bulls break through, then .9335/50 is next big level.

Sep 10

FXWW 888 FXWW Pty Ltd

7:54:14 amyes its interesting here....starting to look a bit 'wedgie' on the hourly

Sep 10

Sean Lee FXWW

8:01:00 amBofAML intro, USD bullish sentiment waning: " Today was one of the lightest FX volumes of the year following poor important US economic data on Friday. Buyers of USD really did not show up after the Olympic driven euphoria in Asia. Many were concerned USDJPY did not close above 100.00. CTAs were early movers cutting USD long exposures and buying EUR crosses though few discretionary managers wanted to follow. Sentiment is bullish the USD, though an increasing number of conversations with portfolio managers today suggests the mood is turning. Inaction in Syria, questions over the appointment of Larry Summers to the FOMC, weak US NFP all point to questions rather than answers. “Liquid Cross Border Flows” illustrates a market long USD versus many pairs and new USD buyers may want to wait until after September 18. Our commodities team point out the gold market is not positioned for a possibility that tapering could be delayed. If so, we could see a rather swift rally that could take gold into the high 1400s, as there are stops above 1425 and 1450. A listed October 1500 call (4 delta) is around $2. This expires on the 25th of September, so you will capture the FOMC announcement and a few days afterwards in case there is proper follow through. It seems like a cheap tail hedge if the FOMC delays tapering. US Treasuries also held up pretty well before the very large Verizon bond issuance goes into full swing tomorrow.

Sep 10

FXWW 42 FXWW Pty Ltd

Sep 10

Sean Lee FXWW

8:47:09 amMorning 42, you are an early riser :) Looking like it might be a very quiet one today. Corporate buyers in EUR/AUD was main overnight flow as well as modest EUR/GBP short-covering.

9:14:39 am..........................

9:16:48 am[Screenshot4] | [DesktopObject4] EUR/JPY as 888 mentioned earlier is ripe for a bullish breakout and I'd suggest that a break above 132.40 will add to momentum. I find it hard to be enthusiastic about being long EUR so I'm leaving it alone

9:40:11 am...............................

9:41:46 am[Screenshot1] | [DesktopObject1] The fact that the EUR/USD dip stalled at a 50% retracement level is certainly of technical significance. Despite the overall sideways tendency, the short-term momentum is certainly in bulls favour

by Sean Lee

EUR/USD: Cross buying helps put interim base in place

  • Most recent downmove stalled at a 50% retracement level (see chart);
  • EUR/AUD saw some some heavy corporate buyers emerge below 1.4300;
  • EUR/JPY trading towards upper end of consolidation pattern (see chart) and a break above 132.40 could accelerate momentum;
  • Modest profit taking also emerged in EUR/GBP.

Overall it still looks like a sideways trading proposition for EUR/USD but the bulls have the better short-term prospects in my view. Buying any dips back onto the 1.31 handle makes sense and we will certainly see some dips whenever Draghi tries to talk it lower.

by Sean Lee

AUD outlook; flows mainly AUD negative in overnight trade

  • Corporate buyers returned in EUR/AUD, helping to trigger trailing stops above 1.4370 with more seen above 1.4390;
  • Market tried to trigger stops in AUD/USD above .9240 but has failed thus far with plenty of selling interest just ahead of there;
  • More sell orders noted above .9250 through .9350 at regular intervals;
  • AUD/JPY still in consolidation mode between 90/93.

I've got no strong view today, but buying dips in EUR/AUD does seem like a sensible play for a test of technical resistance at 1.4450.

by Sean Lee

Asian market open

FXWW Asia Open Briefing 10-09-2013

Modest short-covering seen in some of the EUR crosses overnight and I'd again look to pairs like EUR/AUD for flow-driven volatility during the Asian session. USD/JPY has steadied near 99.50 which will be pleasing for the bulls and the liklihood is that we get another push higher in coming sessions.

Good luck today.

by Sean Lee

Cable: Set to go higher if retail positioning is any indicator

If this data from Oanda is a good indicator of how the overall cable market is positioned then I think we are in for a test of major highs at 1.5750 (see link).

by Sean Lee

European open briefing

Thanks to Milan for his European open FXWW European Open Briefing 09-09-2013

Personally I expect most eyes to be on the GBP during European trade with the sterling starting to show signs of strength on the crosses and cable inching towards important resistance at 1.5750. I prefer to play GBP from the long side but I am biased :)

by Sean Lee

AUD/USD: Mixed reports on order front

  • One of big local banks reports heavy selling interest at regular intervals above .9230 all way through .9350.
  • Big US prime broker reports heavy stop-loss buy orders above .9240.
  • The AUD still looks solid on the crosses but AUD/JPY should hit some heavy resistance near 93.00.
  • EUR/AUD put in a bearish weekly close and looks more likely to test 1.40 than 1.45 in coming days/weeks.

 

 

by Sean Lee

GBP/JPY looking to test 156.90

Comments from the BOE's Fisher in the Sunday Times have given the GBP an early boost to start the week. He was quoted in the Sunday Times as saying that policies were finally kicking in and business confidence is now quite striking. It's amazing how confidence can become infectious so be careful about trying to pick tops in the GBP; remember that we are at longer-term cheap levels on most of the crosses.

EUR/GBP took out a barrier at .8400 on Friday and now GBP/JPY is aiming at a technical milestone. It's already almost 1% higher on the session and the obvious target is trend highs at 156.80 (see chart).

by Sean Lee

USD/JPY: Opens higher amid heavy turnover

  • Nikkei expected to open higher today;
  • Chinese trade data supports the 'risk' trades;
  • Market already long from last week so many stale longs happy to sell into this morning's strength;
  • Prices need to break above last week's 100.20 highs in order to rejuvenate bullish momentum;
  • Crosses like AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY still look bullish.

Conclusion: I still prefer the buy-big-dip strategy but we need to pick our levels carefully. I don't fancy being caught long near 100 just as happened to many on Friday when we got the big clean-out to 98.00. Be patient and buy dips is my view, or bears can try selling intraday rallies to 100.00 with tight stops above 100.30.

by Sean Lee

Asian market open, Monday September 9th

  • There were plenty of stop-loss runs on Friday in pairs like USD/JPY, NZD/USD and EUR/GBP;
  • Chinese trade data released over the weekend showed continued improvement and this will help the 'risk' pairs;
  • The Australian election returned a new government as expected but as yet there has been no effect on the AUD (but best to wait a while);
  • The GBP continues to show strength and the EUR is in typical 'sideways' mode;
  • Japanese GDP and Chinese CPI on the economic calendar.

Good luck today.

by Sean Lee

Early European chat-room activity

 

Sep 6

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

Sep 6

John Webb Market News

3:41:35 pmI am getting confirmation of decent demand interest around $1.3100 linked to optionality...could be Asian demand but can't get PBOC link confirmed...option interest at $1.3100 rolls off Weds Sep11

Sep 6

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

4:39:11 pmhearing Sovereign bids 3110 EUR/USD...could be linked to that barrier if China-rumor is true

4:39:47 pmUniCredit:

4:39:49 pmNikkei 225 Index goes from positive to negative and some guys in the streets are pinning this story that Japan will not get the vote to host 2020 Olympics due to fears Japan might be experiencing elevated levels of radiation as a result of a 2011 nuclear disaster. I am clueless and am also told that shares property and construction related companies have rallied past 3 weeks and this could be some profit taking.

As result of this Nikkei, UsdJpy got pulled below 100 and then triggered very short term stops below 99.90. Dollar continued to decline, orderly manner, to 99.695; we then heard stop sell orders from CTA names are gathered at 99.50 and thereafter. I was told that one lifer sold some 400mio UsdJpy above 100.15.

4:40:00 pmI am told of chunky EurUsd bids surrounding 1.3100 linked to options, and these expire Wed Sept 11. Some bids are scattered from 1.3080 to 1.3050 from corporate accounts; meanwhile real money offers Euro at 1.3250. Mostly stop buy orders are found above 1.3255.

Xinhua news said President Xi Jinping reiterated that China will strive to deepen interest rate and exchange rate reforms. President Xi also said China is willing to slow down economic growth for reforms. This did not dent the Aud, market stayed firmed above 0.9118 and later climbed to 0.9144. Some mild stops are reported above 0.9155.

The theme for Asia is still pretty much the same. Currency pairs from South faces outflows while North witnessed inflows. As such UsdMyr, UsdIdr and UsdThb stayed firm – UsdKrw and UsdCnh touch lower opening levels.

4:40:02 pm-------------------

4:41:05 pmMORGAN STANLEY:

4:41:09 pmAs an eventful week draws to a close, the focus turns to today's NFP report with the market looking for a solid number of +180k (MS +190k vs prev +162k) to reinforce the case for Fed to scale back the $85b per month asset purchase. The dollar index has had a good run this week with a test of the 50% fib resistance at 82.75 the next target. Treasury yields are also higher with the 10yr straddling 3.00%, while gold has dropped back to 1370 area, just above the 100dma.

4:41:14 pmFX wise, Usd/Jpy is trading lower after running into hefty offers at 100.15-20 which coincides with the 76.4% fib of the July-Aug slide. Eur/Usd meanwhile is consolidating in a 20 pt range around 1.3130 following yesterday's 100 pt fall after ECB yesterday indicated that interest rate risk is to the downside. The 100 & 200 dma's at 1.3139 & 1.3148 will provide near term resistance while a break of 1.31 (50% fib of the 1.2755 July lows/1.3452 Aug highs) could well see Eur/Usd slip back a further 80-100 pts. If 1.30 was to be taken out then it's into the 1.27's. Good luck

4:41:17 pm-------------------------

4:44:39 pmImporter bids in dollar/yen still resting at 99.20...weak stops thru 99.50

4:55:00 pmKiwi approaching .7930 offers, more at .7950

by Sean Lee

USD/JPY: Probably best to stay square tonight

The market probably got itself quite long this week? I think it might be best to stay square for tonight?  Or maybe just wait for clear opportunities.

by Sean Lee

Intraday trading range expectations

  • AUD/JPY is usually one of the more active pairs and I'd expect further consolidation of recent bull move broadly between 90.90/91.60 (see chart);
  • EUR/GBP should gravitate towards barrier protection at .8400;
  • Cable buy orders reportedly solid 1.5565/70 but will struggle to break above 1.5620 in Asia;
  • USD/JPY bulls might be a bit disappointed by the lack of follow through above 100.00, looking for 99.70/100.40 consolidation;
  • EUR/USD should find support at 1.3100 and a quiet session is likely with 1.3140/45 likely to cap.

by Sean Lee