AUD/USD: Next resistance near .9450 prior daily highs
The dip-buyers aren't getting any chances at all and the AUD/USD smashed through the 94 cents barrier after better-than-expected jobs data.
The numbers weren't mind-bogglingly good, so shows you just how bullish the AUD/USD is right now.
Prior daily highs at .9450 offer the next level of resistance.
EUR/USD: Obvious resistance nearby at 1.3875
- There is a previous daily high at 1.3875 which offers an obvious resistance level;
- Crosses are mixed with EUR/JPY support levels still holding but EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD looking soft still;
- Positioning reports suggest that the market is still very willing to sell rallies;
- With USD weakness starting to look ingrained, I have a preference for the 'buy-dip' strategy in EUR/USD but there are better trades elsewhere IMHO.
USD/JPY: Plenty of dip buyers around but.....
I'm not too sure what to do with USD/JPY. Overall it looks like we are in a holding pattern somewhere between 101/105 and that we will see 110+ once this consolidation is complete. The Yen crosses look reasonably well bid, especially pairs like NZD/JPY, and whilst the cross demand is there, we should not see a massive USD/JPY sell-off.
Nevertheless, care is warranted, as the USD looks pretty sick to me at the moment and the lack of any concrete steps by the BOJ might well frighten off the Yen bears.
If you're bullish, buy dips to 101.25 with fairly tight stops.
If you're bearish, I might even consider selling a break below 100.75? Risky, but once this pair turns it will fall very fast indeed.
USD/CAD: Break below 1.0880 and close below 1.0900 has bears firmly in charge
If you're bearish USD/CAD (and I am), then you might consider a short near current levels with a stop back above yesterday's highs. As we all know, its not called the Loonie for nothing, and it tends to react and trade differently to every other currency. Nevertheless, the market is almost certainly still quite short of CAD and after these fresh technical signals, being short USD/CAD looks like a good idea to me.
Cable: Large stop-loss orders above 1.6830 (could get nasty in Twilight zone)
There are some large stop-loss buy orders above 1.6830 in the cable and although that's still 40 pips away, I'd still suggest that care is warranted. If the Algos get a sniff of them in thin early Asian trade, then we might get a nasty stop-loss run.
AUD/USD: Big barrier battle ahead of .9400 on big-data day
- A very large US investment house was a noted seller at .9398/99 overnight, obviously protecting a large barrier;
- Australian employment and Chinese trade data should ensure intraday volatility for the AUD;
- Buying dips in the AUD/USD is still the obvious play in my view.
NZD/USD makes marginal new highs, no follow-through as yet
NZD/USD is trading above previous daily highs at .8700 but hasn't accelerated. I'd stay in the buy-dip camp here for now. The overall bull target is a weekly high at .8830 and as that approaches, we may get some good NZD selling opportunities on the crosses.
AUD/USD: Market still smells short, buying dips the play
I know it's rather unscientific but the AUD/USD market still 'smells' very short to me and more topside is likely. There will of course be pull-backs but the fact that we've closed above .9350 suggests to me that the most immediate danger is top-side.
I'm looking to re-instate longs on any dips back towards .9300 and I see nothing stopping us having a full retrace now back to .9750.
EUR/USD: Sideways trading preferred with both currencies looking weak
- The EUR is looking weak on the crosses; the short-term EUR/GBP bull trend has broken down, the medium-term EUR/AUD bull trend looks to be reversing and now EUR/JPY is showing signs of a reversal:
- The USD also looks weak across the board, which sounds like a perfect recipe for range trading in EUR/USD:
- I'll maintain a modest bullish bias after technical support at 1.3650/70 held firm.
Cable: Consolidation over, buying dips now preferred
The USD is losing friends across the board and with pairs like EUR/GBP starting to break lower again, buying dips in cable looks like a very obvious strategy. The consolidation period is now over in my view and I'd expect a new bullish range between 1.66/1.70.
On the day, there is decent resistance between 1.6770/1.6820 which will attract profit takers and any dips onto the 1.66 handle will surely see stale shorts on the bid.
Real money players behind overnight USD sell-off
Some well-connected traders in the FXWW chat-room are speculating that even better connected types were behind the overnight USD sell-off! With the latest Fed minutes due out tomorrow, perhaps someone's heard a whisper?
USD/CAD support levels near 1.0900 are looking crucial and I've got a bullish trend-line and previous daily lows coming in on USD/JPY near 101.20. A break below these levels and the USD sell-off will start picking up more momentum.
CAD/JPY: Sorry got that one wrong; timing beats logic every day
The main factor in play overnight was the heavily imbalanced JPY positioning and with the BOJ resorting to 'hot air' and with risk aversion in the air, USD/JPY got smashed. That said, we are now at the lower end of the 101.50/104.50 range and those who were patient may well be rewarded.
I got stopped out of my CAD/JPY longs and will reassess.
My overall bias remains very bullish on AUD and CAD, moderately bullish now on GBP, neutral on EUR, and bearish on USD and JPY.
Ukraine tensions: CAD/JPY long position might be worth considering
Increased tensions in the Ukraine will mean higher oil prices in the short-term at least and one clear way to play this is through CAD/JPY (or GBP/JPY but risk-aversion could offset some gains?).
The Japanese economy must import virtually all of its oil needs and of course Canada is a net exporter of oil. I'm long already from last week and have added some more at 93.80. Let's see how it develops.
Cable: Back on bull train after more strong data
This time it was industrial output coming on top of the strong export survey overnight. Looks like the cable might be getting back on the bull train especially with the USD weakening across the board? EUR/GBP has broken below technical support, another bullish GBP sign.
I certainly wouldn't be buying breaks but buying dips looks like the way to play cable in coming sessions.
Ukraine tensions and inactive BOJ spooking JPY shorts
The most obvious trade at this very moment in time is to be long Yen, or at the very least not to be short! Increasing tensions in the Ukraine and the lack of any concrete steps by the BOJ have caused Yen shorts to bail.
Strong corporate bids in USD/JPY at 102.65/70 are holding well thus far.
NZD/USD: Leading the way in fairly quiet trade
There isn't much happening anywhere in the FX market today, with USD/JPY having undone it's earlier losses and the other majors trading very quietly.
NZD/USD has been the main mover overall, currently +0.3% on the session, but its about to run into some minor technical resistance in the form of a previous high at .8640.
AUD/USD: Still in buy-big-dip camp
This pair has been good to me in recent weeks so I'm staying patient and waiting for the right entry levels. The consolidation between .92/.93 could carry on for a few sessions yet and today's movement will depend mainly on flows in the crosses; AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD primarily.
I don't see any value in trading the AUD/USD whilst it's in sideways mode and I'll spare myself the emotional hardship.
USD/JPY edging lower as longs exit pre-BOJ
No real surprise here, the market is usually long of USD/JPY, and with expectations regarding further BOJ easing on the decrease, the longs are starting to bail out.
Latest order reports suggested that there are significant corporate bids at 102.65/70 with stops getting heavier below 102.45.