NZD/JPY: Still worth considering this short-trade strategy
It's too close to Easter for me and I'm happy to stay on the sidelines but the risk-off players out there can still consider this trade especially given that this morning's dairy auctions delivered lower volume and lower prices.
Technical resistance is still solid near 88.60 so keep stops above there if playing.
AUD/USD: More downside risk as long weekend beckons
Like I said yesterday morning, the short-term AUD market smells a bit long heading into the long Easter weekend and we will see profit taking emerge at certain levels. The first of these was .9425/30 yesterday and now we need to pay attention to where the trailing stops might be placed. I'm guessing that these will start below .9330.
Cable: Market targeting stops below 1.6680
As many have pointed out to me since my last post, the double-top on the daily chart will lead to existing longs raising their trailing stops just to lock in some profit. Hard to blame them ahead of a long weekend.
The first level of stops are directly below 1.6680 according to one of the bigger prime brokers.
I'll stick with my buy-dip strategy but I will probably wait a few days and get them a bit/lot cheaper.
GBP: I'm turning very bullish again
Please don't ask me for 5 exact reasons, but the overall price action especially on the crosses suggests to me that we are set for considerably more GBP strength. My preferred medium-term play is to buy any deep dips on cable or in the meantime to play long GBP against the AUD, NZD and CAD.
The really big level to watch on the crosses will be .8150 in EUR/GBP. If we break below there then I expect GBP demand to pick up significantly across the board.
NZD/JPY: Bearish entry level for 'risk-off' players
If you are of the opinion that we may get some risk-off sentiment ahead of the long Easter break, then you might consider an entry level near a 61.8% Fibo at 88.60 in NZD/JPY.
I'm not overly sure which way to go, but with the market likely to be quite long of this pair already, I do have a contrarian bearish bias ahead of expected positional reduction.
AUD/USD: Still looking bit overbought ahead of RBA minutes
Hate to rub it in :) but the place to buy AUD/USD was at .9025 a few weeks ago and not to be chasing it higher towards 95 cents. Don't get me wrong, I still think we have put a major low in place and we go higher in the medium term but for now, the short-term market feels overbought to me. I will sit on the sidelines and wait for some decent dips.
There is modest resistance nearby at .8425/30 and this should attract some profit takers in quiet markets ahead of the RBA minutes.
EUR: Why is Draghi now becoming more worried about a higher EUR
If Mario is trying to talk down the EUR, does that mean that he thinks it's going higher?
I don't think I'd be selling the EUR on this morning's comments, in fact I'm tempted to buy it! Let's wait and see if Europe gives us some decent entry levels in pairs like EUR/NZD or EUR/CAD?
USD/JPY: Still prefer the short-term sell-rally strategy
The market remains bullish USD/JPY and it also remains long and susceptible to short-term clean-outs on the downside. The bulls have drawn a line in the sand near 101.25 which suggests to me that there will be a lot of stops below 101.00. On the topside, there could be stops above 102.20 but sellers will re-emerge towards 102.60.
Strategy: Wait in hope for the topside stops to be done and sell into strength near 102.50 looking for a clean-out later in the week towards 100.00.
Look to Yen crosses for intraday trading opportunities
It will be a short week with many traders taking it easy ahead of a long Easter break. I wouldn't be looking for any big medium-term trading opportunities, I will settle for some obvious short-term plays if they appear.
The most likely pairs in Asia will be the Yen crosses with AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY to the fore, taking leads from risk sentiment, equity markets and the precious metals. I'm trying not to have any strong views, simply see what the market gives us.
One obvious technical trade on the hourly NZD/JPY chart is to sell near 88.60 but that's all I'm seeing at the moment.
EUR opens lower after Draghi comments
Comments from ECB chief Draghi that a stronger EUR would trigger looser ECB policy have seen the EUR/USD open lower in early interbank trade. It's currently trading at 1.3840.
Elsewhere the USD/JPY is at 101.60, AUD/USD is .9385, GBP/USD is 1.6715 and USD/CAD is 1.0975.
Monday webinar on FX Street: Earning an income in online FX space
I'll be doing a webinar on Monday on FX Street starting at 10am GMT. The subject matter will be all about "How to earn income or make a career in the retail FX space". We will look at who's hiring amongst banks/brokers, how bloggers can earn some income, selling reports/analysis, education/training, and of course account management and signal services.
If you can't catch it live, then you will be able to watch a recording at a later date.
USD/CAD: Fibo and buy-orders provided strong base
- The 38.2% retracement of the big up-move from 1.0175/1.1280 came in at 1.0858, which was approximately yesterday's low;
- There is talk of large buy orders in the market at 1.0850;
- Both of these factors should ensure that any dips onto the 1.08 handle meet with plenty of willing buyers.
AUD/USD longs getting squeezed; look for support near .9335
- The short-term market was obviously a bit overly long AUD and we are getting a typical Friday position squeeze;
- AUD/USD support is expected to be very solid near .9335;
- NZD/USD may have a bit more downside potential given that AUD/NZD has had a bullish daily close above 1.0830.
USD/JPY: Important technical support levels ahead of heavy stop-loss orders
- Weekly intermediate bullish trendline comes in near 101.40;
- Series of daily lows near 101.20;
- Daily trend lows 100.75;
- Heavy 'liquidation' stop-loss orders from macro funds reported below 101.00.
USD/CAD: Cutting my short position (CAD/JPY the worry)
My recent 100% losing record on the Loonie is set to continue and I'm taking a smallish loss on my short position from yesterday.
If the Yen crosses start getting hit hard, then CAD/JPY could easily bear the brunt, so I'm bailing out of USD/CAD. The inability to close below 1.0900 is another factor.
Perfectly set up for risk-off Friday
Equity markets are nervous and USD/JPY is sitting just above important support levels with 'liquidation-type' stops being reported below 101.00. Friday's are generally 'risk-off' events in Asia and I'm sure most traders will be focussing on the Yen crosses.
There isn't a whole lot on the economic calendar, apart from China CPI, so positional adjustment will be the main market driver.
Good luck today and TGIF.
USD/CAD: Shorts in play, sometimes you just gotta have a go
The Loonie owes me big time! And is probably likely to owe me more pretty soon if I get stopped out of this position :( The charts look to me like a vertical fall is in the offing and I've taken a short position at 1.0890.
Much of the USD fate for the coming session will depend on what happens in USD/JPY and Cable. If USD support levels can hold then we may see a mini-reversal also in pairs like AUD/USD and USD/CAD as well? I guess we will just have to wait and see but at least it should be interesting.