NZD/USD: Expected to edge higher in coming sessions
That is according to the CBA, who note that rising dairy prices should have a positive impact on the Kiwi. A quick look at the charts suggests an .8360/.8460 range and a quick look at my bank balance shows me that I cannot afford to trade the Kiwi ever again :)
Short-term technicals updated: In a word, buy-dips
Ok, two words then, or a hyphenate. I've updated the short-term technicals in the members section and they are now also on Twitter, @Sean_lee_forex.
By the way, anyone know how to stop these dodgy FX robots from following on Twitter?
Massive order levels in AUD/USD, EUR/CHF and GBP/USD
I've updated the orders in the members section and the highlights are as follows:
- AUD/USD; large sell orders at 1.0600 with stops immediately above 1.0605:
- EUR/CHF; massive optionality at 1.2500:
- Cable; large bids 1.5930/45 with heavy structural stops below 1.5900.
JPY and CHF still providing the most volatility
The GBP did come under some selling pressure in early Europe, mainly on the back of GBP/CHF selling by a big Swiss bank, but the market has since settled down into a nice quiet consolidation phase. The Yen gave back some of the gains it made during Asian trade yesterday and both the EUR and the AUD have traded in fairly tight ranges against the greenback over the last few sessions.
I'm staying in range trading mode this session, still with a buy-EUR bias. AUD/USD looks like it wants to test 1.0600 again and EUR/JPY should stay comfortably inside a 116.50/118.50 range. I'd suggest staying with the buy-JPY bias during the Asian session, just like we've had for the last few.
EUR/CHF: Heavy in early Europe as big Swiss players sell
The 38.2% retracement of the 1.2080/1.2410 rally comes in at 1.2285 so that's a possible target for the bears. Volatility is high in this pair at the moment with EUR/USD and USD/CHF tending to move in the same direction, leading to big moves in the crosses.
Edit: Now hearing some GBP/CHF selling also went through.
JPY crosses: Buying dips worth considering once Asian market closes
Again I'm relying on the accuracy of interbank reports here, but they are usually pretty good. The suggestion is that most of the big JPY short positions are held in Asian (mainly Japanese) accounts and therefore any big Yen rallies are more likely to happen during Asian trade and perhaps into early Europe. Once Asia has quietened down, it might be worth considering short-term buy-dips strategy in the Yen crosses as JPY buyers might dry up and lead to some intraday short-covering rallies in pairs like EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Just a thought.
Still like the look of the EUR crosses
- EUR/CHF should continue to be the lead pair and reportedly gigantic optionality at 1.2500 should prove magnetic in coming sessions. I've left a 'floater' take-profit order at 1.2485 just in case there is massive barrier protection up there:
- EUR/GBP looks to be consolidating around .8300 and I'll look to book some interim profit on another topside failure:
- EUR/USD remains well supported by real-money and Sovereign buyers but the speculative players haven't turned bullish yet:
- EUR/JPY is still retracing off interim highs at 120.00 and looks to have easy technical scope for 116.05. Will remain volatile is probably a safe bet.
AUD turns lower as Chinese shares take a dive
The Shanghai Composite is now almost 2% lower and this is affecting AUD sentiment, with AUD/USD trading near session lows at 1.0550.
EUR/JPY, USD/JPY: Short-term technicals updated
I've updated the short-term technical outlook for both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY in the members section. The other pairs haven't really moved from this morning.
AUD/USD: CBA lists the positive factors currently influencing this pair
- Improved global outlook:
- Low volatility:
- Rising iron ore prices:
- Widening AU-US 2-year spreads.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia is one of the big 4 Australian banks and you can read their weekly research in the members section.
EUR/USD: Cheap and cheerful trade idea
Buy at 1.3260 with s/l at 1.3237 and t/p at 1.3445.
That's certainly a fierce risk-reward ratio but of course you can expect the odds to be against it. Nevertheless, solid bids are reported 1.3250/60 from Sovereigns and real-money players and the low overnight was 1.3265 so if this level is tested and holds, then the EUR bulls could be off to the races again (not Pamplona this time :) ).
USD/JPY: Any Ichimoku experts out there??
I thought the report yesterday from one of the big banks that the really big JPY short positions are in Asia was very interesting. This tells us that the big Yen short-squeezes, like we've seen over the last 2 Asian sessions, will have a better-than-average chance of happening during Asian/early-European trade. It also tells me that Ichimoku analysis becomes much more important as the Japanese in particular follow it so closely.
Have we any Ichimoku experts who would like to share their thoughts with us? Thanks in advance.
EUR/JPY looks to have scope for 116.00
I thought that 117.50 would hold but it was not to be and this retracement could easily see 116.00 before the dominant bull trend reasserts itself. I'm still running partial CHF/JPY shorts and will hold for another session or two and see how it develops.
EUR/CHF: Looks a lot like EUR/JPY a few weeks back
Remember that EUR/JPY was nearly 20 big figures lower a few weeks ago and it's really only been a change in sentiment brought on by verbal intervention which has caused the rise. The CHF is capped by actual intervention and with real money flows now reversing out of CHF and into EUR, this pair has plenty of scope higher in my very biased opinion.
I think most of the rise will eventually happen through the USD/CHF leg, ie it will rise to 1.00 and above while the EUR/USD will edge higher towards the upper end of its range perhaps even seeing 1.38/1.40. Obviously if this happens, it will give FX traders some great opportunities to trade the swings.
I'll be away for most of this morning and early afternoon. I'm meeting with one of the market's biggest allocators to emerging traders and hopefully they will throw plenty of cash in the direction of our traders! Chat later++
EUR/CHF: Super heavy optionality at 1.2500
Reports from the interbank options market say that this is the big level to watch and is likely to prove magnetic in coming sessions.
Short-term technicals of major pairs updated
You can see all up-dated short-term technicals in the members section and if you don't have a password, just let me know.
Quick synopsis: Buy dips in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF! That was easy :)