USD/JPY: Don't chase it higher
If you've missed the recent up-move, then wait for the next retracement rather than buying breaks. You may miss some of the move but its too dangerous to be buying into strength imho. I've updated USD/JPY short-term technicals in the members.
EUR/USD technicals: Touching the 100-week MA
Many long-term investor types will track the 100-week MA. EUR/USD has been trading below there for the last 14 months and we are currently sitting right on it at 1.3385.
I've also updated the EUR/USD short-term technicals in the members section.
Cable proving tricky to trade in current environment
Obviously the dominant influence on the GBP at the moment is coming from EUR/GBP, where we are seeing a big unwinding of long-term short positions. Macro players are at least moving to a neutral EUR position, and this is enough to cause a big move in the market.
Cable is stuck in a holding play near 1.6000 and there are plenty of rumours about big buyers and sellers in the market. Risk-reward would seem to favour buying near 1.5960/70 with a tightish stops below 1.5925. There's also talk of large structural stops below 1.5900 and if they go off, they could be good for a 150/200 pip clean-out, so be wary on the downside.
EUR/GBP is headed for .8800 but it won't happen in a straight line.
FX market staying quiet in early Asia
Tokyo should start joining the fray fairly soon and it will be interesting to see if they want to buy or sell USD/JPY at these levels. I'm thinking that there will be corporate sell orders near 90.00 which might keep things capped for a while, but that's just a guess on my part.
Elsewhere only the NZD has seen some volatility and the other majors are quiet. I've got a take-profit order in EUR/USD at 1.3435 which I'm hoping will get filled today and make my weekend more enjoyable. EUR/CHF at 1.2500 is the other big level to watch.
AUD/NZD: Could this be the next big cross play?
The NZD has taken a bit of a beating after the CPI data came in quite a bit below expectations (-0.2% in Q4 against +0.1% expected).
As we are in the time of the cross plays, maybe AUD/NZD is worth consideration, seeing as its just broken above its recent range highs at 1.2600. Looks like it could easily go to 1.3000 again?
EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY technicals updated
These are the two lead pairs of the moment and I've updated the short-term technicals in the members section. I'll get around to the others through the morning.
Interim profit booked in EUR/CHF
As I mentioned yesterday, I left a 'floater' at 1.2485 and it got filled overnight, taking 80% of profit on a 400 pip move. Very nice way to finish the week after a few lean months.
There is talk of 'massive' optionality at 1.2500 which will certainly include large barriers so I'm happy to book profits and see what happens. I remain very bearish on the CHF but I have a feeling that the next 'leg' might be driven by USD/CHF, so I'm in a buy-dip mode there.
EUR still powering upwards
The EUR is higher across the board driven by EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD.
I'd expect 1.3310 to now form an interim base in EUR/USD and my target is 1.3435. USD/CHF looks like the powerful play and if 1.2500 breaks in EUR/CHF, then shut your eyes and buy USD/CHF (at least that's what I'll be doing).
Good luck out there, catch you tomorrow++
USD/CHF surging early in European trade
EUR/CHF is back at recent highs near 1.2420 and that big optionality at 1.2500 is beckoning even louder. Not a trend to be trifled with in my opinion, and if you're on already then enjoy the ride 'cos these types of moves don't come along very often!
Range trading in the main during Asia but some big moves to come
- AUD/USD triggered weak stops below 1.0500 after poor jobs data, AUD looks weak on crosses:
- EUR/USD stuck in 1.3270/1.3320 holding range. Big bids reported 1.3250/60 but likely to be plenty of stops below 1.3240. I still like this pair higher to 1.3450ish before another consolidation:
- USD/JPY has looked fairly well bid all day and the buy-dip feeling is returning. I'm square on the Yen:
- EUR/GBP is chopping around .8300 and I've booked some interim profits on my long position; talk of large cable buyer in next few sessions but that's not real reason behind my GBP purchase, more a feel that the cross has come far enough for now:
- EUR/CHF consolidating near 1.2400 and I still fancy a test of large optionality at 1.2500.
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY technicals updated
I've updated these technicals via the marvels of Twitter and they are also available in the members section.
EUR/GBP: Booking partial profits
I've been long for ages on this pair and I'm taking around 40% of my profit off the table. I entered this trade through the 'legs' so I've partially covered my cable shorts at 1.5995 and I've put an order on the EUR/USD equivalent at 1.3235 oco 1.3435. Hope that isn't too complicated? Guy with good info reckons that short GBP might struggle for next few sessions so I'll trust him and see what happens. I'm sort of thinking that we might see a dip back towards .8200 anyway so it suits my thinking.
I'm still running a long EUR/CHF trade which has an interim profit-take at 1.2485 and I squared up the balance of my CHF/JPY trade last night (nice little earner there Arfur :) ).
AUD/USD: Targeting stops below 1.0500
Don't think they are quite done yet so dip-buyers should hold off for another while I think. Maybe around 1.0475ish?
Webinar this afternoon on opportunities for the retail trader
I'll be doing a webinar on FX Street this afternoon which will be the first in a two-part epic on opportunities for retail traders who hope to make FX their profession. I will cover the full range from strategy provision through hedge fund creation. You can access the link here.
EUR higher against the AUD and JPY in quiet Asian trade
Not a lot to report from this morning's session with the EUR up to 118.00 against the JPY, after opening at 117.40, and EUR/AUD also making a decent 50 pip move higher after the slightly disappointing Australian jobs data.
I'm expecting trading conditions to remain quiet until Europe comes in and I'm still a big fan of the buy-dip play in most EUR pairs.
AUD/USD dips by 25 pips after jobs data
The headline unemployment number came in at 5.4% and the economy lost 5,000 jobs with full-time jobs down by almost 14,000. This was slightly worse than expected.
No point in trading the AUD/USD at these levels, I'd consider buying at 1.0475ish or selling at 1.0585ish.
AUD edging lower ahead of jobs data
Fairly quiet so far this morning with the USD edging higher against the JPY and the AUD.
The market is awaiting Australian jobs data and I still think that range-trading will prevail, regardless of the outcome. So consider trading if the pair moves over 50 pips in either direction.