• If they cut by 25bps: I would expect to see a sharp drop below 1.0200 and any subsequent rallies to be capped at 1.0230. If they also issue a dovish statement we can expect important lows at 1.0115 to be tested later this session.
  • If they leave rates unchanged: I’d then expect a pretty sharp rally towards 1.0300 and some consolidation then between 1.0270/1.0330. If the statement is less-than-dovish, then we will see sell orders at 1.0330 seriously tested.