USD/JPY looking most likely of majors to make big move

• Larger positions will tend to get increasingly nervous the longer a currency pair trades in a sideways formation;
• Plenty of large JPY-short positions have been built up over the last 18 months, particularly from Japanese investors;
• USD/JPY hasn’t risen in line with global equity markets;
• Technically, a break below 100.70 would suggest that the holding pattern is broken and that we will move lower onto a new plane.

That said, anyone who has traded the range in USD/JPY over the last 6/9 months will have made a lot of money and we may well stay in this range for some months to come. But, if we do get a break, I think it will be lower and there will be a lot of macro stops now sub 100.50 and especially sub 99.75.