Well I’m not usually but in this case I’ve had to be as it’s been moving so slowly. Many in the market remain quite bullish on USD/CAD but I’m of the opposite opinion; I think the market has gotten itself overly short of CAD across the board and the next significant CAD move will be up.
That said, I’m not expecting any sudden fireworks and we are likely to continue to trade sideways in a broad 1.0750/1.1000 channel until the black swan flies in and puts the cat amongst the pigeons (with all these clichés I should be reporting on the World Cup soccer!)
One of the favourite crosses for the professional traders in recent months has been GBP/CAD and I suspect the market is still very long here. If USD/CAD bottoms out near 1.0750 then I may look for a 200-pip reversal trade in the cable depending on where it’s trading at the time (hope that makes sense, but I’m sure it will to all the cross traders out there).