I had expected a big move higher in USD/CHF last year, especially given the move in US interest rates but it didn’t happen. USD/JPY was the pair that made the 30%+ rally but despite strong historical correlations between the CHF and the JPY, at least in terms of short term momentum, USD/CHF remained stubbornly heavy on every approach to 1.0000.
Now we are back around .93 which is almost exactly where we were this time last year. Where to from here?
The long term chart is in a sideways consolidation phase roughly between .88/1.02. I would play this range for the year ahead and try not to get too carried away in the noisy middle (like I did last year!)
In the short term I would favour buying dips for the simple reason that we are nearer to support levels than resistance levels.
Fundamentally I cannot see any strong reason for favouring either of these currencies so I will take my leads from the market until such time as something significant changes.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PoTdl7vs/