The recent attraction of inevitable rate rises in the US has been more than outweighed by the ‘risk-off’ buying of the CHF and this has meant that (very annoyingly for me), USD/CHF has been unable to catch a bid tone like almost every other USD-denominated pair. The algos undoubtedly love this pair as its been stuck in an .87-1.02 range for the last 7 years and neither side has at any stage been able to generate any significant momentum.
Experience can sometimes be a negative trait when it comes to FX trading, as for decades I was used to trading USD/CHF in the 1.40-1.50 region and deep down its very difficult for me to be bearish on something which is already 50% below that area. The flows of international money into the CHF, which are overwhelmingly for security/hedging purposes, show no sign of reversing and until they do, USD/CHF will continue to defy anti-gravity (if that’s a thing?).
So I’ve got 2 choices; do nothing or keep trying to pick a bottom. I’m going to stick with the latter and try and jump on any short-term bullish momentum in the expectation that when the tide turns against the Swissy, it will turn with a vengeance.
The daily chart is showing us some decent support/resistance around .9100/.9350 so I will wait and see what happens at either of those levels.