Today's highlights from the FXWW-Reuters chat-room

AUD/USD stalling thus far at 76.4% pullback level https://www.tradingview.com/x/nfQee9AI/

AUD/USD: Hearing from 2 sources that end-of-month demand expected to be positive over next 2 days. Certaily doesn’t look like it at moment but if markets thin down for Thanksgiving w/e then might have an effect

Citi FX Wire (Story)

CitiFX Techs stopped on short GBPUSD position at 1.6330.
– (The position was established at 1.6178 yesterday)

Hard to go against a firm trend at the moment.

peter I think they lowered the stop to 1.6275 in London session

but yes – same result

I’d expect cable to be toppy 16320/30 during Asia with usual profit-takers emerging and of course dips to 16260 will attract technical buyers. Probably won’t even be that wide given that Thanksgiving hols tonight in US but we live in hope

Brazil’s CB just raises rate to 10%, decision was unanimous… Dollar Real was up more than 3 big figures overnight…
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worth keeping an eye on these levels just above in gbpnzd too…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1scRz7Kd/

and bigger pic view…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7pnAKHik/

We will definitely see more macro positioning adjustments if it starts trading back above 2.00

yes I’d say the real money guys switching out of uk n into kiwi bonds in the low 1.80s will be starting to reassess

RBNZ headlines on Reuters; too early to aqssess impact of LVR restrictions
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yes think ANZ getting a bit excited talking abt jan 14 rate hokes

hikes also

altho u can’t argue the data coming out of nz is v good looking at that latest biz confidence

New Zealand firms recorded a further lift in their overall level of optimism about the general economy. The general business confidence measure lifted from +53 in October to +61 in November, just shy of a fifteen-year high for the series. On a major divisional basis the retail sector recorded the largest lift in confidence in November, rising from +48 to +70, the highest across the five major divisions and the sector’s highest reading since July 1994. A fresh record was also set at the other end of the sectoral scale. The agriculture sector reported the lowest level of business confidence, but at +51, it has been nearly 20 years since the lowest sectoral level of optimism was this high.

we have got strong building Capex, and Cap Capex in Q3; AUD/USD high so far is at 0.9116; I won’t be surprised if there is more upside to run given the short AUD trades are getting crowded…
ECONAU – Screenshot.png
ECONAU – DesktopObject.xml

good mrng everyone and thank u all …:)

couple of sharp props selling euryen against 2009 highs for decent retrace

AUD/NZD stalled again at 1.1200 on spike; might be worth selling with tight stop above 1.1210

USD/JPY: Earlier in the week the big PBs were reporting heavy sell orders starting above 102.25. Looks like they are still there as 26 was high

nomura on capex.pdf (193.6 kB) Overall, the report was better than expected and, with mining investment increasing on the quarter; it signals that the peak in mining investment may be delayed.

tx 42… have reason to go wid aud atleast fr short term

chart keeps telling me ‘a very dangerous proposition’ … Id like to see the kumo top (just below 9150) on the hourly broken first, but even if that occurs, next critical mission is to conquer 0.9190/92. Only above 0.92/9210 we start to have a more constructive picture.

tx..

OPTIONS: Option expiries for today’s NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.00
* Euro-dollar; $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3700,
$1.3710

Morning John, end-of-month flows expected to be USD negative with EUR, GBP and AUD benefitting according to what I’m hearing

Local guys bought AUD/USD ahead of Fixes in expectation

Cable in s/t 1.6260/1.6330 range but will eventually break higher I would think; my target is at 1.6410

yes have reports from Citi and Barx supporting that view

fix views that is

in cable have $1.6376 as a short term target, 1.618% swing proj of the move back from $1.6331 to $1.6258, brings the $1.6381 2013 high into view as well …would want to see a break of $1.6331 before I got excited about that call though

was told yesterday watch for E/$ downside Friday…no reason given but we have EZ CPI Friday morning which could spark up some interest if it comes in below expectations again

Txs Brillo, yep mkt having lot of trouble getting bullish EUR/USD, so must be headed higher!!

Money flow still showing Aussie buying interest at current levels
AUD=D2 – Screenshot.png
AUD=D2 – DesktopObject.xml

Japan’s GPIF will announce its investment results for last quarter as early as tomorrow, as it considers shifting more of its 121 trillion yen to private equity, commodities, real-estate investment trusts and overseas assets.

Japan FinMin no comment on FX rates
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Barclays summary of month end flows: FX Month-end rebalancing analysis

The market value of US equity markets have seen sharp increases since the end of October despite the selloff in US bonds (Figure 1). The relative movements are best explained by the better US economic data and dovish rhetoric from the Fed aimed at delinking any decision to taper asset purchases from potential rate hikes in the future. Outside of the US, equity markets elsewhere were mixed with only Japan registering gains. The rally in euro area bond markets has persisted since the ECB cut interest rates at the start of the month as expectations for further action continues to build. The movement in US markets dominates these, however. The rebalancing of FX hedges at month-end are expected to yield a mild/modest USD sell signal (Figure 2) with the stronger signal being versus the EUR.

MS.. Good morning, Another record close in the%… (Story)

CitiFX Wire.. EUR lower after German import pricesEURUSD has shed around 10 pips after German October import prices fell 0.7% MoM (expected -0.3%); these appear to have been taken as a barometer for the CPI data later. EURUSD is now 1.3572.

CIBC:

Australian dollar rose on back of better capital expenditure. Stop loss trigger above 0.9130 brought us up to high of 0.9141. There is an interesting story in FT about the report by Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics revealing that investments in Australia’s mining industry has fallen by $3bn to $240bn. Aud stayed around 0.9125-30 into Tokyo break; some sell orders are reported at 0.9150 with weak stops near 0.9175.

UsdJpy backed off towards 102.00 partly due to Nikkei paring gains and partly on the Aussie rally. Market is aware of stops placed under 101.85 coming from interbank accounts; offers lined up ahead of the 102.50-option barrier.

Very dull on the Euro front; there has been some talk of a small Asian central bank selling near 1.3610 but don’t think it is sizeable. Some banks mentioned renewed offers at 1.3590 up to 1.3620.