I don’t think it’s being overly immodest to admit that I had a great start to the year. EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY have given me some excellent trading opportunities and I’ve been able to profit from them. I also don’t think it’s any coincidence that this period of profitability came after I spent 3 weeks over Christmas studying all aspects of the market, particularly positioning/sentiment amongst the big players and of course the medium term technicals.
Unfortunately I get the sense that my hot hand is starting to cool down. I just don’t have a great feel at the moment for what the important levels are so I am scaling back my risk levels immediately. I will continue to run my long EUR/CHF position and my small USD/CHF longs, but apart from that I will be greatly reducing my entry positions until the confidence returns.
(Funny how virtually from one day to the next, we can go from being 100% convinced of our views to being totally uncertain! I guess that’s the trader’s lot). Maybe best to use me as a reverse indicator for the moment 🙂