I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular.

I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready to turn bullish JPY after such a prolonged period of Yen bearishness. Certainly we could get some sideways consolidation, and even a mild JPY-bullish bias, but I can’t see the market turning suddenly ueber-bullish on the Yen.

That said, there are still reports of very large stops below 100.70 in USD/JPY and I expect these to get triggered. When this happens we will likely see a test of 100.00 but I am prepared to try buying that dip (or preferably an AUD/JPY dip) if/when a short-term base looks like forming.