• They do not expect the ECB to ease although they may end the sterilisation of the securities market programme (SMP);
  • Cuts to the deposit rate and main refinancing operations (MRO) are still possible;
  • End of SMP sterilisation would be worth around 50 pips in EUR/USD;
  • Depot cut to 0.15% would be worth up to 150/200 pips;
  • Reaction will depend on language which Draghi uses, whether it sounds like a ‘one-off’ or ‘more-to-come’.