Early morning chat-room chatter

12:15:55 amThe EUR is drifting off into some sovereign bids between 1.3190-80 but stops are placed below. Some buying interest noted at 1.3160 in front of Chart support at 1.3140.. A break there seen as significant.

2:11:26 amModel funds sold EUR/USD earlier but failed to trigger sub-1.3180 stops

2:12:04 amexporter offers at 99.50 in USD/JPY capping rally for now…but liquidity is thin & trading interest low…so no chance for momentum to build anyway

2:18:20 amNouriel Roubini – The main risks to the global economy in the coming months http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-main-risks-to-the-global-economy-in-the-coming-months-by-nouriel-roubini

2:21:09 amFX Heatmap (vs USD): NZD (+1.20 %), AUD (+1.00 %), GBP (+ 0.40 %), EUR (-0.02 %), CAD (-0.03 %), CHF (-0.35 %), JPY (-1.20 %)

4:25:11 am————-

4:25:22 amFXWW Asia Open Briefing 03-09-2013.pdf

5:02:29 amCredit_Suisse_Yen_Techs.pdf

6:22:35 amA/U: price was always going to ‘park’ near the 0.90 level. This level would have tempted many to SHORT given it was the 61.8% pullback level from last week’s high. I’m wondering if a ‘hold’ on interest rates today might help to lift this further though? What are the fundamental people thinking/seeing?

6:22:35 amAU4hr.jpg

6:58:16 amMorning all. Positioning is main factor at play IMHO Mary with election looming. Can the bears hold their nerve?

7:21:36 amMorning, with a triangle break at 98.95 in doll yn with a 110 objective and Ichi moku daily close above the cloud one better close ones eyes and buy.. Right. ?

7:25:38 amAgree 303, don’t think about it, just do it

7:26:47 amHi all, my personal take is that RBA will not/can not abandon easing bias narrative if they are to defend a cheap $A. Rate cuts are not imminent – latest indicators support the case-, which gives a good excuse to see AUD recovering some ground. However, bounces stil to bel short-lived in my view and selling on strength name of the game.

7:26:56 amAs long as RBA does not communicate cut though, playing 0.89/0.92 edges looks pretty safe… although still feels safer to sell on strength. Was more optimistic on AUDUSD early aug, but since twin topside failure at 0.9230, i grew more skeptical…

7:29:39 amDoll Yen, with the solid close near day highs arguing for higher targets ahead, I will be looking to rejoin uptrend on retracements… Hopefully we get an opportunity later today

7:33:58 am€/$ looking vulnerable to a breakout lower, with later bounce off 1.3180 failing to regain latest Friday swing high. But with NFP Friday, risk is not much follow thru seen, so it might be a case of fading potential break?

7:34:35 amthx 42.. some strange aud price action there

7:34:59 amthink maybe euraud stops run- is breaking below trendline here

7:35:39 amcertainly right time of day to be triggering stops

7:38:45 amI will be carefully looking to see how NZDUSD behaves btw 7840/75, if breaks above the latter I think Kiwi might see further strength ahead, if failure here, pair still showing characteristic of a potential legitimate breakout to lower levels…

7:47:16 amsme one trying to buy decent clip of aud here

7:51:10 amEUR/USD bids reportedly very solid 1.3165/70; PB

7:52:58 amrun into some audnzd supply and they scrambling for the kiwi leg

7:54:22 amLook at aud yn down trend line from 105.45.. Coming in here at 89.50 cud open up more s/l buying

8:03:57 amthx 303….here’s what u are looking at i think (altho not sure u can view it)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yBhdjqmF/

8:05:22 amksbuying tks, I try not to pre-empty breaks but it’s always tempting

8:09:46 amalso of interest is this EURAUD chart… break of 1.4750 lvl yesterday putting a top in place- and now looks like we are breaking uptrend from July…(on a longer term chart also, somewhere around here is a break of the major uptrend from down around 1.20)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EdjAJjMe/
I’ll post some further analysis soon from a more fundamental standpoint

8:19:34 amAfter a 23% rise since the low in April, EURAUD has failed to break 1.50, and we now see room for a bigger decline back towards 1.42 area. Technically EURAUD is just breaking the uptrend line from April. Fundamentally, many of the reasons behind AUD weakness – China slowing, weak domestic earnings, lower mining revenues, and subsequently lower rate projections – have now been fully priced and are even reversing. On 7th Aug, the day after RBA cut rates, OIS was pricing 34bps of further cuts by the March 2014 meeting. That has now moved to only 22bps. Equally, the narrowing of periphery spreads in Europe that supported EUR$ seems to have run it’s course as Greek problems and uncertainty around German support post their election (Sept 22) resurface.

There has also been uncertainty into the Australian elections this weekend (7th Sept), but polls show Abbott’s opposition Coalition party are now 6% ahead of the Labour party. A clear result should boost confidence. Furthermore, this morning Abbot stated he would break the emissions pledge, saying he would repeal the carbox tax ( http://bit.ly/14ROtX6 ) and revealed A$31bn in spending cuts.

It is also apparent positioning is at extremes (see relative IMM positioning chart 2), and commodity prices a have bounced in the past couple of months (chart 3), following sharp falls around the middle of the year. The RBA commodity price index, released today, showed a rise of +1.2% in August (in USD) following a rise in July. Base metal and iron ore prices rose, supported by rising demand from China. (see report: https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=ztDn3I6UfU&n=385215.PDF Paul Bloxham)

8:19:59 amEURAUD.jpg

8:23:19 amwell that kiwi didnt like it up there

8:23:52 amactually thought it was at risk of going 60 bid

8:33:23 am[Screenshot0] | [DesktopObject0] Australian commodity index at 15-mth highs; Reuters report

8:52:13 amUSD/JPY: Technical break yesterday out of wedge implies more gains ahead but overnight bank reports suggest corp offers starting 99.60/65 and optionality at 100.00. We could easily see a pull-back to 98.80ish before higher? I favour 98.80/99.80 range trade for next few sessions but with bullish bias for sure