- The general consensus amongst professional analysts is that the Fed will acknowledge the improvement in general labour market conditions, and taper again by $10 billion. This is the outcome which is currently being priced into the market.
- The market will be focusing as much on the wage-price pressure as on the headline unemployment numbers and the general feeling that I’m getting from the professional analysts is that both numbers could be USD supportive (more jobs, higher wages).
Overall, the market has turned modestly USD bullish in the short-term and I expect this mini-trend to continue at least until the data on Friday.