AUD/JPY: Feels ready for short squeeze
I know that picking bottoms is a dangerous occupation but I must say that AUD/JPY is starting to feel a bit oversold. Not sure how far it can run but buying dips now preferred in short term.
Happy to stay square for now
I think this is the longest time I've been position-less for ages and I must say it doesn't feel too bad :)
I'm looking to sell any exhaustive rallies in USD/JPY and I'm still not averse to buying AUD/USD, but I will wait for a good technical set-up.
The EUR looks well-bid but I don't have the commitment to being either long or short and I'm still partial to being long GBP but the timing there is also wrong at the moment.
EUR/USD flows: Good buying interest reported downside
Our hedge fund insider @FXWW888 is reporting consistent EUR/USD buying interest starting below 1.3265.
USD/JPY: Support holds yet again
Once more the bottom of the cloud near 97.55 has proven a step too far for the bears and we now look to the topside to see where possible trailing stops might lie. Spike highs at 98.55 are the obvious level above which there might be stops, but sell orders are still being reported near 98.60/65.
Remember also that macro-funds have been selling the Yen crosses, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY have been mentioned, so I'd expect any stop-loss driven spikes in USD/JPY to be good selling opportunities.
AUD/USD: Decent bids holding for now but interbank dealers still bearish
The local interbank dealers are uniformly bearish on AUD/USD this morning and say it's only a matter of hours before we see an 88 handle on it. There has been one decent buyer this morning between .8925/50, buying clips of 50/100 every 5 pips, and they have managed to hold it up so far.
EUR/GBP technicals: Weekly trendline breaks again; bulls in control
I'm leaving this pair alone as I'm bearish and the market is bullish (see chart). The next technical target is a weekly high at .8815.
FXWW chat-room now open
Our new chat-room is now open for testing so those who have access, please pop along and tell us what we are doing wrong :)
I will be sending an email out to all registrants (registration box at bottom of page) tomorrow explaining how this will work. Suffice it to say, I hope this will level the playing field for the serious retail FX trader.
AUD/USD flows: Decent sized bids appearing below .8950
This morning's initial sell-off has been stalled by some decent bids which appeared below .8950. It still looks soft but keep an eye on AUD/NZD as well, with solid bids reported below 1.1200.
EUR, CHF and JPY bullish; GBP and AUD bearish
The FOMC had centre stage last night and their slightly dovish twist has had a mixed effect on the markets. The USD is really pretty much unchanged from yesterday and we are seeing most of the action in the crosses. The 'defensive' trades are doing well with EUR, CHF and JPY all slightly higher whilst the traditional 'risky' trades like the GBP and the AUD are lower. I'm sure you can make your own sense out of this; but basically the EUR/AUD recovery toward more neutral long-term levels continues unabated and GBP/JPY profit taking from macro accounts has ramped up a notch or three.
USD/JPY support at 97.60 has held firm yet again and that will be the main level to watch in today's trade. Keep an eye on AUD/NZD as well, with profit takers aplenty reported below 1.1200.
The 100% success rate indicator (from the new FXWW chat-room)
"Note the Barx month end FX model for this month has a 'MAX' signal across the board - in this instance a MAX $ sell signal. They have run the model since 2002 and have had this occurrence in just 10 of 128 observations – the results for all these occurrences show a 100% success rate (ie always positive return) for the benchmark window period of NOON London to the WMR 4pm London fix."
Hate to whet your appetite when its still in trial mode but hopefully we can escalate very soon. FXWW888 posted this piece a short time ago.
I will send a message in coming days to all those who have registered on FXWW, outlining the new product format.
JPY crosses: Bears should show some patience
The speculators have started selling the Yen crosses again but they may have a tough time of it today. There has been decent institutional demand today from Japanese pension and investment funds across a range of pairs which might level the speculators caught short near short-term lows?
I'm bearish overall but we do need to get our timing and entry levels correct, and I don't think today is the right time to be selling. One possible exception is GBP/JPY, with the market starting to turn quite bearish on the pound.
AUD/USD staying heavy but .9000 remains untested today
The market is all beared up again on the AUD and local banks are now calling for another 2 rate cuts this year. The AUD/USD has been the only mover of note in early trade and patient shorts are no doubt starting to book at least some profit ahead of the big psychological level. The low so far has been .9011 and we may see intraday shorts getting squeezed again as we head into early Europe, (but rallies are still looking like selling opportunities, at least in very short term).
USD/JPY hasn't done anything so far today but we may get another test of 97.60/70 support in early Europe. The risk reward in buying that dip with a tight stop below 97.50 still looks compelling.
Asian session, July 31st: Yen crosses staying very heavy
It was very quiet in overnight trade and we can expect exactly the same in Asia with nothing of note on the economic calendar.
- Any volatility is likely to come from the Yen crosses, with macro funds noted sellers of GBP/JPY in particular during overnight trade.
- USD/JPY short-term technical support at 97.60 continues to hold but that won't last forever. Expect heavy stops below 97.50.
- AUD/USD has consolidated yesterday's losses and looks likely to test 90.00 at some stage today, especially if AUD/JPY selling picks up.
- EUR/USD is once again stuck in neutral gear and going nowhere, although heavy end-of-month central bank buying of EUR/GBP had its usual impact.
The most obvious trade is to sell-rallies in the Yen crosses and elsewhere I'd be patient and wait for opportunities to pick up 100/150 pip swing trades.
I'm away this morning but will be back for the afternoon session.
AUD/JPY takes out previous trend lows
AUD/JPY has broken marginally below previous trend lows at 88.95 whilst AUD/USD is trading near session lows at .9065. Sentiment remains very bearish on the Aussie and with the prospect of large stops looming below 90 cents, its hard to see any major relief rallies any time soon. I'm position-less for a change but will now look to sell any exhaustive rallies in USD/JPY or maybe even buy silly dips in the AUD/USD, if the price is right? We could see 89 cents if big stops go off so I'm not in any hurry.
EUR/AUD: Next major technical target at 1.50
Remember the beautiful basing formation on the weekly chart (see chart)! Well most of the oversold characteristics have been unwound and we will return very soon to longer-term neutral levels. Proof once again that the FX market is one great big range trade!
Next technical resistance target is a weekly high near 1.5000 and any dips now back towards 1.4400 should be well supported.
AUD crosses failing to bounce at all
- EUR/AUD is 200 pips higher on the day and showing no signs of weariness just yet.
- AUD/JPY has broken trendline support and looks likely to test trend lows at 88.95 very soon.
- AUD/NZD has broken more technical support near 1.1375 and is targeting 1.1200 (and starting to get very cheap).
USD/JPY: Sell orders noted 98.60/65
The support levels we mentioned this morning at 97.60 have done the trick and USD/JPY is in short-term recovery mode. Sell orders near 98.60/65 should be tough to overcome on the first run and any exhaustive spikes towards 99.50 should be used as medium-term selling opportunities, in my opinion.
AUD/USD likely to re-test .9000
Mr Stevens did what all good central bankers do and talked his currency lower. Stops were triggered below .9125, mine included, and the bears are back in control. Next stop 90 cents again. Silly dips are still buying opportunities.