Stopped out of GBP/AUD after Stevens comments
Can't say that I'm surprised by his comments but my little bet that he would stay neutral back-fired.
Back to drawing board.
USD/JPY: Expect tight 97.40/80 range
This pair is stuck between the 200-dma at 97.38 and reported corporate sell orders at 97.80. I'm still leaning towards a bearish bias, with reports of heavy topside offers and an already long market swaying my opinion. If USD/JPY is to rally, then it will surely come via sharp moves in the Yen crosses as I cannot see the USD getting bulled up any-time soon.
GBP/AUD: Intraday short trade in play
- Stops reported in cable below 1.6100 and we usually get some heavy EUR/GBP demand at this time of the month;
- GBP/AUD looks a bit 'toppy' on the short term charts but it needs to hold below 1.6890;
- AUD demand reported from real-money funds on dips towards .9535/50.
This goes against my recent bias but I like the minimum 3:1 reward:risk ratio so I've gone short at 1.6855 with a tight stop above 1.6900 and a minimum target at 1.6700.
AUD: Watch for news-wire headlines from Glenn Stevens speech
"29 October 2013, 9.30 am AEDT
Opening remarks by Glenn Stevens, Governor, to Citi's 5th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney."
He will probably try and talk the AUD down a bit, just like all central banker's do these days.
Market still in waiting mode: Levels to watch today are...
Not exactly sure what we are waiting for, but I hope it happens soon! The big storm in Europe undoubtedly contributed to the quiet conditions and NY was unable to generate any momentum.
Levels to watch today:
- Cable; large stops below 1.6100
- AUD/USD; real-money bids .9535/50 and technical support at .9520
- USD/JPY; corporate sell orders 97.80ish and the 200-dma at 97.38
- EUR/USD; decent sized sell orders 1.3825.
USD: Sentiment still bearish but some big support levels continue to hold
- USD/JPY: Until we get a strong daily close below the 200-dma (currently at 97.38), the bulls will maintain hope;
- Cable: Possible double-top now at 1.6260 and further resistance behind there at 1.6310- market needs to close above the latter to generate fresh momentum;
- AUD/USD: The 200-dma at .9740 is the big level to watch here and has proven to be strong enough on the first test.
Watch out if all 3 levels break!
Fed dove-hawk scale
If you've been losing sleep wondering where all the Fed members sit on the dove-hawk scale, then relief is at hand courtesy of Thomson Reuters. Click and sleep :)
FX market staying very slow mid-way through Asian trade
- AUD a bit higher across the board with technical buying against the EUR and JPY helping the Aussie;
- EUR/USD trading in a 15 pip range with sell orders now reported near 1.3825 in decent size;
- USD/JPY has drifted back towards its NY closing level near 97.40 with the market unable to break through heavy sell orders at 97.80;
- Cable is similarly comatosed but the market might have one further crack at 1.6260 once London opens.
Here's one which all 'content' providers will relate to
Very boring market this morning so here's a thought-provoking piece from the NY Times which is especially relevant in the retail FX market.
EUR/AUD technical trade idea for the bears
Sell rallies to neckline resistance at 1.4440 (see chart) with fairly tight stops. This level is also being protected by the 50-dma which is turning lower after a very steep rise.
AUD/USD technicals: Short-term support levels near .9570
- The big levels to watch are very clear on the daily (see chart), with support at .9510/20 and resistance at .9715/40;
- Short term support levels start at hourly lows near .9570;
- Real-money bids were reported last week starting near .9550;
- Macro funds were on the offer .9675/80 end of last week;
- I still favour the buy-dip strategy here but patience required.
USD/JPY opens higher in Asia on mainly technical buying
- The failure to end last week below the 200-DMA, today just below 97.40, has encouraged a bout of bullishness this morning;
- The market has traded to 97.78 so far but there were large sell orders reported last week near 97.80;
- Most of the other pairs are fairly quiet and New Zealand is having a long weekend thanks to their Labour Day holiday.
Peter Jackson RIP
It saddens me to have to report that Peter Jackson, who many will remember from Forexlive, passed away last night at a very young age. Rest in peace Pete.
Stops aplenty in cable and USD/JPY
- There are rumours that the BoK started buying cable, recycling their earlier intervention, and this drove cable through 1.6220 which triggered short-term stops on the way to 1.6245.
- USD/JPY stops were also tripped below 97.10 in thinner-than-usual Friday trade.
NZD staying weak in early Asian trade
NZD/USD has broken below overnight lows at .8320 and AUD/NZD is testing daily highs near 1.1550.
EUR/NZD is still looking very interesting and the break above 1.6570 100-DMA makes it look even more bullish.
If USD/JPY breaks cleanly below 97.10 then NZD/JPY selling will surely pick up pace as well.
AUD/USD: Soft feel this morning, risk-off Friday
- Mixed pictures on the crosses with AUD/JPY looking soft, targeting 92.80, and EUR/AUD looking bullish, targeting 1.45+;
- AUD/NZD on the other hand looks strong and a test of 1.1650 looks likely;
- Prior highs at .9520 are the obvious downside target in AUD/USD but with USD sentiment still poor, buying big dips is the play;
- Resistance levels will be very strong on the approach to the 200-DMA at .9745 now.
Nothing much on the economic calendar so we will rely on end-of-week flows for some excitement.
NZD continues to look very weak on the crosses
- AUD/NZD close above 1.1500 could be an important psychological turning point;
- EUR/NZD has an imperfect double-bottom formation (see chart) but a close above 1.6515 and another break above the 100-DMA could set the tone for a medium term rally;
- NZD/JPY looks to be in a pretty sharp short-term downtrend.
USD/JPY: Sitting right on the 200-DMA
- Heavy offers reported between 97.70/85;
- Technical support at 97.25 200-DMA (see chart);
- Weekly close below will be a major technical event;
Two ways of playing this in my opinion:
Bears can try selling intraday rallies towards 97.70 and adding on a break back below 97.00. Cut the position if it can't close below 97.25.
Bulls can try buying near 97.00/10 if it stalls there for long enough in the hope that the close tonight below 97.25 doesn't happen.