EUR/GBP: Stay bearish but cover on 'silly' dips
As I've been saying for the last few days, this pair continues to look constructively bearish and a test of the bottom of the bear channel near .8200 seems very likely.
I think that this cross will trade below .8000 in Q1 but progress is usually slow and steady so be prepared to cover your shorts on any silly dips and reload on rallies.
AUD/USD: Starting to look very comfortable below .90
Most of the market's focus has remained on the crosses with the GBP remaining strong whilst the EUR and CAD are staying soft alongside the yen.
The AUD/USD is starting to look quite comfortable now below .9000 and if we can spend an entire week below this important psychological level then the bears will certainly be able to generate fresh momentum very soon.
Chat-room highlights, Wednesday January 8th
From FXWW Sean Lee : Morning all. USD/CAD biggest mover overnight; next technical resistance around 1.0850 (highs from early 2010)...
FXWW888: morn Sean.. yes cad crosses on the radar
FXWW888: gbpcad
FXWW888: audcad etc
FXWW Sean Lee : yep, mrng mate, nice basing formation in AUD/CAD
FXWW Sean Lee : sry nice basing formation in AUD/CHF I meant to say
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FXWW - fxww.com
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7:18:51 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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Morning all. USD/CAD biggest mover overnight; next technical resistance around 1.0850 (highs from early 2010)
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7:20:14 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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morn Sean.. yes cad crosses on the radar
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7:20:22 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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gbpcad
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7:21:29 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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audcad etc
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7:25:59 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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yep, mrng mate, nice basing formation in AUD/CAD
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7:26:22 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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sry nice basing formation in AUD/CHF I meant to say
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7:26:30 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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CHF other main loser o/n
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7:27:56 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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yes eurchf been on a tear... supply/tch lvl just here.. have lightens some longs from sub 1.22 just ahead of 70
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7:28:09 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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7:28:42 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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well done on eur/chf, you picked base nicely
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7:30:17 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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just doing my job
 ... int lvls here gbpchf also |
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7:32:46 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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GBP/CHF looks v likely to test 155. Seems that we are in classic 'cross' markets
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7:38:33 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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AUD/NZD testing trend lows again. You can't keep a good Kiwi down!!
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7:42:43 AM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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starting to get into the'buy and bottom draw' zone... liken it a little to the gbpkiwi down at 1.80 a while back.... fundamentas seem to be pointing in that direction, but v good med term value can be accessed on an overshoot
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7:42:56 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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NZD/USD, next resistance at .8335
https://www.tradingview.com/x/g4ec94KI/ |
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7:43:09 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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yep, agree on cross
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7:56:16 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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9:20:44 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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USD/JPY: bids starting around 104.45 with intraday stops below 104.10. Stops starting above 104.80 (PB).
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9:21:15 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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Cable; decent buying interest starting near 1.6370
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10:02:41 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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AUD/USD: Milan reported BIS bids at 8910 overnight and PB yesterday reported corp buying interest at same level
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11:19:20 AM
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FXWW
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Peter Whitley
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thomsonreuters.com
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US Dollar bid across the board in early Asia
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11:50:25 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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Morning Pete, hearing anything specific behind it? Or just usual USD/JPY stop chasing??
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11:52:46 AM
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FXWW
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Peter Whitley
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thomsonreuters.com
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not heraing anything............AUD/USD has support ard the figure...supoosedly plenty of 89 strikes over the next few days............short covering seemingly over........world at large wants to own US Dollars...............
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11:59:31 AM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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Seems that way, USD/CAD and USD/CHF certainly moved onto new level o/n.
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12:29:00 PM
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FXWW
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Anjaney Kumar
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pnb.co.in
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Good mrng everyone..
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12:49:40 PM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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Yen crosses catching an up-draft. USDJPY should be buy-dips now for 10550 again
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2:12:02 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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still seeing good supply here 90-0 and again 15-20 on top usdjpy....
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2:12:29 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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deamnd back at 40-50
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2:15:25 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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has certainly felt a lot more robust in the last 24 hours... with decent jap demand resurfacing 40-50 in that period
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4:10:02 PM
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FXWW
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Milan Cutkovic
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fxww.com
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Good morning
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4:10:04 PM
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FXWW
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Milan Cutkovic
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fxww.com
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CIBC:
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4:10:07 PM
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FXWW
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Milan Cutkovic
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fxww.com
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Euro was steady in Asia ahead of Thurs’ ECB; range of 1.3605-325. Flows have been light – we heard offers sitting above 1.3650 rumoured to be for an Asian account while European real money placed their buy orders below 1.3560.With Nikkei in positive, UsdJpy reached high 104.945. There was also a round of EurJpy buying from offshore banks when cross broke 142.60. Some banks spoke of UsdJpy offers at 105.00 but dollar stayed firm with Nikkei comfortably above 16K. There are stops through figure. Asian buyers are at 104.00-10.The focus on Canada continues - how the Ivey PMI and trade deficit sent the UsdCad to near 3-year high. We opened here at 1.0765 and fellow Canadian banks have offers lined up ahead and at 1.0800 but beyond that, all stop buy orders. There is a lot of talk of UsdCad barrier options starting from 1.0825 every 25 points to above 1.0900.Nothing much to pen on Aussie – range has been 0.8903-29. Some rumour of large option strike at 0.8900 rolling off next week (Thursday) but we don’t think this is credible.
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4:27:02 PM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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EUR/JPY: Possible topping pattern has been negated with break above 14290
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4:28:53 PM
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FXWW
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Curtis Miller
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thomsonreuters.com
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Yep... First stop of 2014 for me
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5:44:19 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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Talk us name large buyer 2mth 108.00's - traded in usd 1bln+
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5:55:42 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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6:35:58 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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CIBC... UsdCad touches 1.0821.... watch 1.0853, break above will target 1.11
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7:14:02 PM
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FXWW
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Peter Kostros
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tatrabanka.sk
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7:27:23 PM
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FXWW
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Sean Lee
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fxww.com
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7:47:24 PM
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FXWW
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Peter Kostros
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tatrabanka.sk
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7:49:24 PM
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FXWW
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Peter Kostros
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tatrabanka.sk
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8:00:23 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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8:02:25 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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WEAK NORWEGIAN IP... EUR/NOK UP 150 PIPS AS FIRST REACTION.
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8:03:12 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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Danske.. NORWAY COMMENT FROM OUR OWN FRANK JULLUM:
Manufacturing production dropped 0.2 % m/m in November ( Danske: +0.3 %, consensus + 0.5 %). Actually, the soft data (PMI and the Business Tendency Survey from SSB) have pointed pronounced upswing in Q4. However, as suspected , the soft data seem to underestimate the current downturn in shipyards. Market reaction : weaker NOK and lower rates. |
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8:05:34 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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Thx JW... on that note....
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8:05:49 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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8:05:55 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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from 6 jan
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8:06:10 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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8:06:28 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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8:07:15 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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Hi 888, tks very much
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8:10:12 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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welcome
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8:10:32 PM
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FXWW
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FXWW 888
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fxww.com
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Deutsche London: Spot Trading Morning Report:http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rvh110
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8:10:37 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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MS.. FX Strategy: Norwegian industrial production rises 1.1% (-2.9%p), but focus is on the soft manufacturing sub reading - fell 0.2% (0.5%e, -0.6%p). This is likely to be watched closely as markets become concerned about dutch disease in Norway (read our note on CAD - similar concerns there). Norwegian manufacturing will need to rise to improve to increase the competitiveness. EURNOK could break above 8.44 - opening way to 8.49. Also look for USDNOK to head toward 6.23.
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8:11:20 PM
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FXWW
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John Webb
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marketnews.com
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think that's about all the NOK's I can take for one day
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EUR/JPY: Topping pattern negated with break above 142.90
Any hopes the bears might have had of a topping formation have been dashed with the break above 142.90.
USD/JPY flows and orders: Plenty of interest on the pro books
- Solid buying interest from professional accounts 104.30/45;
- Intraday stops now plentiful below 104.10;
- Semi-official bids reported yesterday near 103.75/80;
- Top-side trailing stops starting above 104.80/85.
(Info mainly from Prime Broker).
EUR/GBP: Slow but steady bearish progress
- Talking my book as usual, but I see no reason to get off this bear trade;
- Despite some less-than-bullish UK economic data, the cross has struggled to rally;
- GBP/CHF has joined the sterling bull rush as well it seems.
I expect to see a test of the bearish channel base near .8200 sometime in the next 5/7 trading days.
AUD/NZD testing trend lows again near 1.0750
- The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
- There seems to be no let-up in the market demand for NZD;
- Next technical resistance of note in NZD/USD is at .8335 (see chart).
CAD and CHF biggest losers in overnight trade
- USD/CAD is over 1% higher since yesterday morning and the next technical target is 1.0850 highs from 4 years ago. I still think this pair has longer-term scope to test levels near 1.1700. Buying-big-dips is the obvious play.
- One of the big Swiss banks is behind much of the CHF selling as it rebounds from quite overbought levels on many of the crosses. There is a nice basing formation in AUD/CHF which will give clear entry/exit levels (see chart).
EUR/USD: Look for more slow range trading with focus on crosses
- PB source suggests that there are strong bids near 1.3600 and heavy offers above 1.3690;
- EUR/USD has been trading sideways for years and range trading is it's default mode until something major changes;
- ECB unlikely to cause any waves later this week;
- I'm maintaining a bearish bias on crosses like EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD but we still need to pick our levels carefully.
AUD/NZD: Still looking like a good-value contrarian trade
- The bear trend remains in place for AUD/NZD;
- Nevertheless we are trading at historically 'cheap' levels;
- Recent trend lows formed at 1.0750 and there is hourly support at 1.0790/00;
- There is good risk-reward for the contrarian bulls in buying near 1.0800 with a stop below 1.0740, targeting 1.10+
EUR/JPY: Play 141/143 with bearish bias
- Possible topping formation in development here with parameters at 141/143 roughly;
- I prefer to play the edges of this range over the next few sessions with a definite bearish bias;
- If USD/JPY can take out support at 103.70 then the outlook will look even more bearish for the cross;
- But, stay watchful until the CB risk events have passed.
EUR/GBP: Staying in the bear camp
- The market tried to push the GBP lower after lower-than-expected PMI numbers;
- Cable is working through some over-bought values and remains in an uptrend;
- GBP/JPY has solid support at 170.00 (but beware if this breaks);
- I still think that EUR/GBP is destined to be a big early-2014 mover and rally highs are getting lower and lower.
Not much intraday interest in the GBP pairs from what I can see and if anything happens it's likely to emanate from GBP/JPY. The most straightforward trade is to sell rallies in EUR/GBP toward the top of the bear channel (now just below .8400).
Yen showing modest strength but unable to build on yesterday's gains
- USD/JPY will look toppish so long as the long-term Fibo at 105.50 continues to hold firm; a break below previous highs near 103.70 will likely cause further trimming of long positions.
- EUR/JPY is attempting to create a topping formation below 143.00.
- GBP/JPY needs to break below strong technical support at 170.00 in order to worry the bulls.
I'm not sure what to make of the Yen crosses at the moment so I'm staying on the sidelines. There will be intraday opportunities so I'm staying watchful.
EUR/JPY; trade idea for the bears
- If you are bearish EUR/JPY and anticipating a developing topping pattern;
- Sell as close to 142.80 as possible with a stop above 143.30;
- Cover near 141.00 and play the 141/143 consolidation as the pattern evolves (with a bearish bias of course).
JPY crosses breaking lower
- GBP/JPY is testing previous highs at 171.00 and a clean break targets 170.00. The latter is a very strong support level and is surely worth buying-a-bounce out of there with tight-ish stops??
- Next support in EUR/JPY is at 140.90.
EUR crosses: Still significant optionality at .8250 in EUR/GBP
- This level in EUR/GBP is likely to be tested in coming sessions (PB);
- EUR/AUD- developing double-top pattern with neckline at 1.5290;
- EUR/USD flows- big banks and prime brokers still report significant demand on dips (no levels yet).
AUD: Should be whippy this week ahead of FOMC and Chinese data
- AUD/NZD is again challenging support levels between 1.0750/1.0800;
- AUD/USD is still in a downtrend and a move lower to test longer-term technical levels near .8650 still looks feasible;
- There were plenty of sell orders reported above .9000 last week despite the holiday period;
- AUD/JPY is still in consolidation mode above 90.00 whilst EUR/AUD has neutral longer-term levels above 1.5500 and will struggle to make more impulsive gains imho.
Cable: Testing short-term support levels near 1.6400
- Buying big dips is still the obvious play here but it's come a long way over the last few months so patience is needed;
- Technical support levels come in around 1.6390 and we can expect to see some short-term stops below 1.6370 (just guess on my part);
- EUR/GBP continues in its steady downward channel and won't be oversold until it reaches levels near .8200.