AUD/USD: Buy big dips towards .9135
The short-term bull trend has run out of a bit of steam but I remain very much in the buy-dips camp. I've been reading some quite extraordinarily bullish USD forecasts over the last few days against the JPY, CHF and EUR but I simply don't see it happening particularly against the AUD.
I'm looking to increase my long position again on any dips towards .9135 although by the same token, rallies to the 61.8% Fibo at .9335 will probably encounter grateful sellers. So play this 200 pip range with a bullish bias in my view.
AUD/USD: Time to start booking some profits
AUD/USD has moved almost 300 pips from our entry levels and it would be silly not to book at least some profit at these levels. There is a 61.8% resistance level at .9335 and given the downtrend on the daily chart, these levels must be respected.
Once AUD/USD tops out, there should be a good opportunity to sell either EUR/USD or cable, given that these AUD moves are mainly cross related.
Cable: Clear range edges at 1.6470/1.6650
Those trading this range will have enjoyed a few very profitable sessions and I'd suggest that we continue to obey these levels. As we are nearer the top at the moment, and with EUR/GBP nearing support levels, I'd definitely trade intraday with a bearish bias.
Look to sell 1.6630/40 for a quick dip to 1.6560/70 if it does move during Asian trade that is!
EUR still looks heavy as crosses continue to weigh
- The EUR has lost more ground against all of the other majors;
- EUR/JPY is sitting right on important technical support levels at 140.20/40;
- EUR/AUD has created a topping formation now and should hold below 1.50;
- EUR/GBP has had a sharp reversal of the previous short-term bull trend and now even EUR/CAD is starting to reverse quite sharply;
- Initial EUR/USD support levels start at 1.3710/20.
Short-term momentum is bearish for EUR/USD and I expect to see a test of 1.3640/60 support levels, which are crucial in my view. The medium-term outlook will depend on what happens there.
AUD/USD: Happy to stick with uptrend for now
Some big moves are underway in the crosses with the AUD and NZD remaining strong in the short-term and likely to stay that way. The CAD is threatening to join in and it's interesting that they are ignoring moves in the precious metals.
I'm still long AUD/USD and see no reason to change my view just yet. I have raised my partial take-profit order slightly from .9290 to .9330.
Not much of note on today's economic calendar and we will depend on end-of-Japanese-financial-year flows for volatility.
TGIF.
Cable: Favour buying dips during London trade
Like I said earlier, the range edges are pretty well defined at 1.6470 and 1.6650. I fancy a topside test next, especially with EUR/GBP turning bearish again, so I'm looking to buy intraday dips to 1.6540 with a 100 pip topside target.
UK retail sales are the main event on the UK economic calendar.
USD/CAD: Feeling over-extended; prefer shorts for move to 1.0900
My track record on the Loonie isn't very good so please take that into account! After the strong rebound in the AUD, could the CAD be next? I'm not sure how positioning is but surely the big end of Town is seriously short CAD?
I like the idea of being short USD/CAD with stops kept above 1.1250.
USD/JPY: Continue to leave alone until end-of-fin-year flows are complete
Sorry, I've got no clues on USD/JPY.
AUD/JPY looks very bullish but resistance is pretty strong near 94.50 whilst EUR/JPY looks bearish but has solid support 140.20/40.
End-of-financial year flows in Japan will continue to dominate the market so I'm leaving this alone and sticking to the GBP and AUD.
Cable: Still looking for test of 1.6650
- GBP/AUD has made an important technical break lower;
- EUR/GBP short-term bullish momentum is starting to wane;
- Cable support at 1.6470 held very nicely but bearish levels near 1.6650 have also proven very resilient.
Looks like a perfect recipe for range trading in a 200-pip range and I don't have any particular bias at the moment.
EUR starting to look soft on the crosses; drop buy-dip strategy for EUR/USD
- EUR/AUD has made a major technical break lower below 1.50 and selling rallies is heavily favoured;
- EUR/GBP has failed to hold technical support near .8325 and more short-term downside looks likely;
- EUR/JPY is trading towards the bottom end of its 140.40/142.00 consolidation range and the 100-DMA at 140.20 should be closely watched.
I had been operating a buy-dip strategy in EUR/USD but I will hold off for now. If the crosses turn bearish then EUR/USD will not go up. The crucial level for me is around 1.3650 so lets wait and see if we can get a test of this in coming sessions.
AUD/USD: Still long, looking to book some interim profits near .9290
I've been building this position over the last week and whilst I think there is plenty of scope to see levels near 95 cents in coming weeks, I think it's unlikely to happen in a straight line. The base for me is now likely to be around .9120/50 so any dips toward there will give good buying opportunities.
The 61.8% retracement of the .9750/.8660 downmove comes in near .9335 and I will start to book some profits if/when we start getting close to this level (just in case the down-trend starts to reassert itself).
Cable: Favour longs for European session
GBP/AUD has continued to break lower but with Fibo support at 1.6470 having held very well, I definitely favour buying dips in cable.
I'd suggest 1.6505 as the initial support level with obvious levels below that at 1.6470. My topside target is still 1.6650.
AUD/USD: Bullish momentum should pick up now above .9170
We should get some good indication on how bullish the AUD/USD is likely to remain, depending on how it trades now that its broken above .9170.
I'm not seeing much resistance until .9235 but I am biased.
EUR/AUD: Massively important levels looming 1.4980/1.5000
Plenty of traders have been eyeing the developing Head-and-Shoulders formation in this pair. A clean break below 1.4980 would suggest that a massive top is in place and that we are headed back to 1.30 again! Interesting times for sure.
USD/JPY: Now known as "TCPFKAUJ"
The currency pair formerly known as USD/JPY :)
Whatever happened to the movement and volatility which we had come to expect? The end-of-financial-year flows (March 31 in Japan) must be so big on both sides that we are getting tied into a very tight range. Best left alone for a few more days and then we might get a breakout.
Cable: Support confirmed at 1.6470, bull target at 1.6650
- Technical support at 1.6470 has been confirmed and I expect to see some more broad consolidation with this level as support and 1.6650 as the topside pivot;
- The GBP still looks likely to give back gains on the crosses, especially against the AUD;
- EUR/GBP is in consolidation mode between .8325/.8400.
Short-term momentum is now bullish so longs preferred intraday.
AUD/USD: Struggling to break above .9170
This level for me is the final hurdle and if we bulls can take and hold above there then I think we will see some more strong gains. On the other hand, if risk sentiment sours and this level continues to hold, then we might see a slow grind lower towards 90 cents again?
But I remain very bullish for now and I'm prepared to add on breaks.
One word of caution to the bulls, there are 2 RBA speeches set for today so we can expect plenty of verbal intervention!
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