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EUR/USD orders: Trailing stops below 1.3095
One of the bigger Prime Brokers is reporting plentiful trailing stop-loss sell orders below 1.3095 which the Asian market is undoubtedly eyeing closely. If they go off, there is minor support waiting at 1.3075 but nothing more substantial on the hourly chart until 1.3020.
AUD analyst: Fed QE should bolster AUD
John Noonan at Reuters has a better grasp than most of what moves the AUD and he writes this morning that increased Fed QE normally means increased inflows into emerging Asia. If Chinese growth jitters continue to lessen, this should all be very positive for the AUD. Buy into dips is his analysis.
AUD/USD: Heavy above 1.0600 as market eyes RBA
The AUD/USD stalled again just above 1.0600 on Friday with the market now convinced that, if current strength continues, the RBA will cut rates next month in order to stem the rising AUD.
The AUD/USD 4-hr chart is starting to retrace from over-bought levels after a 5-wave up-move and buying dips looks to be the best play here.
The longer-term AUD/USD chart is still in consolidation phase and should be toppy on any approach to 1.0700.
A quick look at the EUR/AUD daily chart shows that this pair broke above prior highs at 1.2400 but is stalling just shy of important Fibo resistance at 1.2485.
My conclusion is that we should trade 1.04/1.07 over next week or so.
EUR/USD: Strong technical resistance at 1.3145; short-term indicators overbought
You can view the daily chart here, https://www.tradingview.com/x/ud6ArubT/, and see that the pair has broken and closed above the 55-day MA which is a bullish sign but it's stalling near a major 38.2% Fibo retracement level at 1.3145.
The 4-hr chart is in a strong uptrend but is heavily overbought and this may give bears a day-trading opportunity?
Overall, buying dips still favoured but watch for topping signs at 1.3150 for an intraday short trade with up to 200 pips potentially available.
Lots of trading opportunities as volatility picks up
Japan is off on holidays today which means that Asia might be quiet but we can expect recent volatility increases to stay with us and that means plenty of trading opportunities.
I'll run through an analysis of each pair over the next few hours but at a quick glance, EUR/USD should struggle to get above 1.3145 (38.2% retracement of 1.4940/1.2040) and that's the main level to watch during this session. EUR/AUD is also going to meet technical resistance and this pair is becoming ever more important during Asian trade.
I'll also be posting the charts on Twitter so you can follow Sean_lee_forex if you want to use that avenue.
Cable technicals: Play 1.6140/1.6300 to start the week
Many thanks to Ivan at FX Street for introducing me to this ridiculously good charting service called Trading View which makes my life a whole lot easier now.
Here's a link to the 2hour chart which suggests that we should be buying dips back towards 1.6140 early in the week.
The longer-term charts show that resistance around 1.6300 is strong and should be respected.
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EUR/USD: Stops triggered above 1.3050
Looks like there was a small barrier there as well and stops (mine included) have been triggered above 1.3050.
Next batch of sell orders are reported at 1.3070.
Risk stays definitely on
My two afternoon trades are looking very dodgy so it will be a case of trying to get away with only a slightly bloody nose.
AUD/JPY: Fresh shorts in play
There is strong technical resistance at 82.05, a previous high as well as the 61.8% retracement of 83.5/79.65 down-move. I'm taking a slightly risky short position, but I'm keeping it small and with a tight stop-loss. More in members section.
EUR/USD: Fresh EUR/USD trade in play
I've taken a fresh EUR/USD trade based 100% on flow and order information. Full details in members section.
EUR/USD orders update
- Solid sell orders now reported between 1.3020/30 including offers from ACBs.
- Bids beginning at 1.2970 but mixed in with stops below 1.2950, more bids at 1.2930 and further stops below 1.2925.
No obvious trades this morning
After some quite big moves overnight, the obvious play in early Asia is to trade counter to the move when some profit taking emerges. I don't feel comfortable doing that after the FOMC, as counter-trending would involve selling risk-trades and/or buying the USD, so I prefer to wait and see how the market develops and perhaps find some dips in AUD/USD later in the session.
EUR/USD pops up on US investment house buying
I'm told a US investment house/prime broker bought about 200 mio EUR/USD on behalf of an off-shore macro fund. EUR/USD popped up by 10 pips from 1.2985 to 95, which isn't much at this time of day, suggesting that there are still plenty of longs out there who are happy to book some profits after an almost 1000 pip move (lows were at 1.2040 not long ago!).
EUR/JPY making fresh new highs
The NY high at 100.75 has been taken out and next resistance is a daily high at 101.40.
EUR/USD interbank orders board
- Next batch of sell orders noted around 1.3030.
- Mixed bag on downside with bids reported at 1.2930 but stops also mentioned below 1.2950 and again below 1.2925