AUD/JPY: Still short with stop above 80.10
I went short last night after the bearish break below 79.70 but a combination of stop-loss buying in the AUD/USD and comments from the MOF's Nakao helped the pair rally somewhat. I'm consoled by the fact that the sharp decline 80.90/79.40 stalled exactly at the 38.2% retracement level and I will keep my stops clearly above there for now.
GBP weakness; blame the ZAR
There was very heavy ZAR selling yesterday, against the JPY in particular, and many traders used the much more liquid GBP as a proxy trade. Once the ZAR starts to stabilise we should see much of this GBP selling start to unwind.
Cable will probably be toppy here in Asia near the overnight breakdown level of 1.6060 but interbank reports suggest that bids are very solid now between 1.5950/70.
US markets closed tonight
That should mean that the European market starts to quieten down sometime soon. Good luck with your trades and I'll catch you in the morning++
Maybe they should be called stop-hunters instead of spot dealers?
That's pretty much what an interbank spot dealer does these days, sees where the stops are and goes after them. Firstly USD/JPY got targeted below 78.20 and now those cable stops I reported earlier below 1.6050 are also 'toast'. Lucky I got most of my GBP/JPY profits off the table last Friday :) Apropos GBP/JPY, its back at the buy-zone near 125.30 and there are sure to be more stops directly below this level.
Orders updated
You can see whatever updated info I have in the members section. Still no trades today from the pro traders, who've been a bit inaccurate lately.
I'm running with a short AUD/JPY position overnight, keeping my stop above 80.10 for now. Best I go talk with the family for a while, I'll check back in an hour or so++
EUR/JPY: Technical support nearby
The Yen crosses are in a bit of a freefall so I wouldn't be trying to pick a bottom anytime soon but there is some technical support on the hourly chart at 101.30 and then 100.90.
Cable: Stops reported below 1.6050
Cable has been under pressure all day after surprisingly falling by 50 pips during Asian trade. Normally London ignores whatever happened in GBP in Asia and immediately reverses but that hasn't happened as of yet. Looks like a reasonable risk-reward play to buy this current dip with a tight stop below 50 looking for a return to this morning's levels?
USD/JPY: Stops reported below 78.20
We have been down here before on Friday and the market was unable to trigger stops then, so I guess there must be some decent sized bids near 78.20 keeping the stops safe. Edit: Stops now done so market might quieten a bit, with US markets shut later today.
AUD/JPY: Sold smalls at 79.59
There is a strong whiff of risk-off sentiment in the air and I think AUD/JPY might be the right pair to trade. I've sold the break at 79.60, let's see how it develops; could turn into a long night!!
AUD/JPY: Looks like a 'sell-break' set-up
I think the market is looking to get short the AUD but hasn't really even started yet (in fact latest IMM data shows the market is still long although Prime Brokers say that the big global macro funds have already started to build short positions).
A quick look at the AUD/JPY daily chart shows a strong line of support across a number of daily lows but if this line breaks, I think we could see a sharp vertical fall towards 75.00. I'm looking to sell smalls on a break below 79.60, 79.40 and again below 79.20. I'm normally not a big fan of selling breaks but I think this is one trade where momentum could really pick up once the break happens.
EUR/USD: Short-term support levels looming
As you can see on the hourly chart, we have a bullish trendline, previous highs, and the 100-hr MA all in close proximity below the market. I'd look for a s/t base to form above 1.2955 and then buy that bounce for a quick 60/70 pip play.
No stand-out trades today
EUR/JPY has been the main mover in Asia, down 50 pips since early morning, but it's been a rather listless day's trade and the big banks say that turnover was exceptionally light. I'm struggling to find any interesting trades at the moment, so if anyone can help.......
EUR/JPY: Next support at 101.85
A quick look at the 30-min chart shows that there are three lows at 101.85 and this level should provide some immediate support.
Cable leading the way lower in early Asian trade
Chinese markets are back after a week off but Japan is closed today for a public holiday. Cable has unusually been the main mover during the early morning session, already down 40 pips today.
Risk has once again been 'off' on a Monday in Asia, I think this is 15 from last 16, with the World Bank downgrade of Chinese growth to 7.7% from 8.2% not helping matters.
EUR/GBP Technicals: Potential for .8215
The daily chart shows a mature downmove from .8500 to .7750 which is currently retracing and looks to have potential to test the 61.8% retracement at .8215, which was formerly an important support level. Selling a failure at this level in line with the dominant downtrend looks like it could be a good risk-reward trade, in the first instant at least.
EUR/JPY: Technically still prefer the sell-big-rally play
The daily chart completed a nice 5-wave pattern from 111.40 to 94.10 and we look to be in retracement mode currently. I prefer selling another failure at 103.80 or if that level breaks, wait for a top to form on the short-term charts near 104.80 and then start building shorts from there.
The market seems to be slipping into risk-off mode and in that scenario I would expect the JPY to out-perform the EUR.