EUR/USD: Stops triggered in thin 'twilight' trade
We've seen this many times before as interbank dealers and Algos take advantage of thin trading conditions right after the NY close to trigger stops. In this case they were sitting right above 1.3085 and have been duly triggered. The 'unchanged' Moody's rating on Spain may have been the trigger but it was all about getting the stops done.
EUR/USD: Fresh shorts in play
My sell order at 1.3050 was triggered overnight and I'm starting out with only a moderately sized position, with a stop-loss above 1.3100. Let's see how it develops. The sell orders in cable managed to cap perfectly (see members) and AUD/USD is also really struggling to get back above 1.0300.
EUR/JPY: Resistance looming near 102.80
Lots of positive developments for the EUR today, with the Spanish bailout request moving into view, talk that a bond exchange deal is back on the table for Greek banks which could save them billions, and comments from Schaeuble that the EU should consider bigger steps towards fiscal union. EUR/JPY has been the main mover, up nearly 80 pips already today but there is some solid technical resistance (Oct 5th daily high) not far away near 102.80.
EUR/USD: Still in range-trading mode so look to sell rallies
The Spanish bail-out news is undoubtedly giving the EUR some bullish impetus and short positions which had been growing again are now getting cut. I nevertheless see no reason to abandon the recent range-trading mode and I will look to sell any exhaustive rallies to 1.3050/60 with an obvious stop-loss level above 1.3100 and the double-top neckline. I've also just reduced my AUD/JPY longs slightly at 81.10 as it seems to be struggling somewhat and I'll now chop the balance either breakeven at 80.68 or at 81.68 for a clean 100 pip profit. It's called the 'sleep-easy' trade.
USD/SGD: 'Agents' bought around $400million today
Looks like the MAS will continue to defend the 1.2200 level, with local agents reportedly buying around $400million during Asian trade.
Asian market overview (quick)
- Nothing surprising in RBA minutes but some doubt now surfacing whether they cut in November or December:
- Nikkei gains nearly 1%:
- JPY crosses rally with continued M&A related buying keeping USD/JPY buoyant:
- FT headline that Spain is now ready to ask for bailout has also encouraged risk sentiment:
- Rio Tinto production numbers were reasonably decent, encouraging some positive AUD sentiment:
- AUD/NZD breaks above technical resistance at 1.2575 after latest NZ CPI data increased expectations of an RBNZ rate cut:
USD/JPY orders updated
- Solid sell orders at 79.00 and again at 79.10:
- Stop-loss buy orders start above 79.25/30:
You can get more order information in the members section.
AUD/JPY: Next resistance hourly highs at 81.20/25
This pair still looks quite strong but Europe may take a different view, so I will lighten my long position if we fail to break above technical resistance at 81.20.
AUD hanging onto gains, quiet elsewhere
AUD/NZD has given back some of its earlier gains after the break above 1.2575 but AUD/JPY is sitting on session highs, near chart resistance at 80.90. The Nikkei is up nearly 1% and the latest production numbers from Rio Tinto look pretty good, both factors lending support to the AUD.
AUD/NZD: Break above technical resistance should lead to AUD/USD demand
The break above important technical resistance (hourly highs, 61.8% retracement) opens the way for a full retracement back towards 1.2700. The interbank market is reporting plentiful demand for NZD/USD from real-money funds and if this is really the case, then AUD/NZD gains are more likely to occur through a higher AUD/USD.
AUD: No new momentum from RBA minutes
AUD/USD is stuck in the middle of a tight 1.0230/70 range and the release of the meeting minutes hasn't changed anything. Looks like the volatility might be done for the day unfortunately.
JPY crosses picking up some bullish momentum; volatility to stay for next few hours
Early Tokyo is keen to jump on the Yen-crosses bullish momentum and both EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have rallied by around 25/30 pips. The market should remain volatile for the next hour or so with the Nikkei opening, the RBA minutes and the Tokyo fix all to happen in the next 60 minutes. I've added to my earlier AUD/JPY longs and will stop out now below 80.40.
EUR/JPY technicals: Play 101.50/102.80 with bullish bias
The break above 101.90 has given this pair a bullish bias in my opinion, and I'm looking for a re-test of 102.80 in coming sessions. Dips should be contained near the bullish short-term trendline.
AUD/JPY trade: Risky longs in play
I've got a relatively small long position here at 80.68 with a 40 pip stop-loss and I will look to add to the position above 80.80 and again above 80.95. My motivation is stop-loss orders; there are sell orders in USD/JPY near 79.00 but there are also large stops from option players at various levels above there. Similarly in AUD/USD, there are plenty of sell orders above 1.0300 but also reportedly large stop-loss buy orders above there. The professional market is already short AUD but the recent strengthening in Asian currencies must surely be worrying them? With regards risk from today's RBA minutes, the market is already pricing in a 90% possibility of a rate cut next month so there's really no upside for the doves and plenty of potential for disappointment. I think it's a reasonable risk-reward trade.
EUR/USD: Stops reported above 1.2995 and again above 1.3020
Interbank dealers report plentiful stops situated above recent highs at 1.2995 which may be targeted soon if no pullback ensues. The US corporate offers which capped the pair on Friday may not yet have been replaced, leaving shorts vulnerable.
EUR/USD: That was the dip and I missed it!
As usual, Europe walks in says "what was Asia thinking" and promptly reverses whatever happened here taking the market back to the NY closing level. Sell orders are reportedly heavy from US corporates above 1.3000 so any major gains will be hard fought from here. In these markets finding an 'easy' 50 pips is the best way to trade and I missed my chance.