ACBs reportedly bought EUR/USD in early European trade
China and Korea, to name but two Asian central banks, have been very actively buying the USD against their home currencies in recent days. Of course once they buy USD, they usually enter the FX market and exchange some of these purchases for EUR, JPY, GBP etc.
I can't confirm which Asian central banks bought EUR/USD in early European trade but it certainly did have an effect.
That's it from me for another day, catch you tomorrow++
Rumours about UK AAA rating adding to EUR/GBP bullishness
I haven't seen the said report but supposedly there's an article circulating which brings the UK's AAA rating into question. As always, treat all these market rumours with caution.
The beginning of a EUR bull move on the crosses?
Well I for one certainly hope so as I'm long EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP through the legs (I've given up on building EUR/JPY longs for now as I think my timing might be slightly wrong). My reasoning remains the same that the Greek debt deal, flawed as it might be, has taken a couple of months worth of EUR negative headlines off the newswires and without fuel, the bear fire will ebb and die. Banks like Deutsche (after all the biggest player in the market by some margin) consistently report that real money EUR buyers outweigh sellers to a significant degree, so if the speculative selling stops, or even turns to buying, then the EUR must rise.
Whether EUR/USD trades sideways 1.28/1.32 and the other pairs like cable and AUD/USD fall? Or whether the EUR/USD races higher and the other pairs lag? Don't know, but time will tell I'm sure.
Spanish 10-year bond yield falls to 8 month lows
The EUR is getting a lift from occurrences in the bond markets.
There are sell orders reported 1.2965/70 in EUR/USD and they are visible on the 'toys' but if we can break above there then there's a chance of re-testing Tuesday's highs (and those who bought at those highs will be given the opportunity to atone for their stupidity :) ).
Cable orders: Buyers still reported 1.5960/70
Just like yesterday, the buyers are reportedly out in force between 1.5960/70 and now I'm hearing of stop-loss sellers below 1.5950. Sounds very much like there might be an option barrier at 1.5950; anyone else hearing anything like this?
You know things are bad when AUD/NZD leads the volatility stakes
By my reckoning, AUD/NZD was the main mover today, down by nearly 50 pips as medium-term AUD longs started looking for some hedging cover ahead of next week's RBA meeting. The futures market is pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate cut next week.
AUD weakness accelerates as session draws to a close
Looks like intraday traders are squaring up before Europe opens and the AUD is trading at session lows against the USD and the NZD. Sovereign bids were reported earlier near 1.0425 but I'm not sure if the market can generate sufficient momentum to test this level.
Quick overview of Asian FX trade
- EUR/JPY moved higher in early pre-Tokyo trade as stops were triggered above 106.25:
- Stops were also triggered in EUR/USD above 1.2945 but a 61.8% Fibo (1.3005/1.2880) at 1.2960 has held firm:
- The AUD has seen some modest selling particularly against the NZD as medium-term longs hedge ahead of next week's RBA meeting:
- Sell orders in USD/JPY at 82.20/25 have remained solid although general market turnover was rather low again today.
AUD/USD: Cancelling my additional sell orders
I'm still running a small short position in the AUD/USD but I really dislike these momentum-less markets. I've cancelled my additional sell orders at 1.0510 and will simply sit back now and hope to be ready to react if/when an opportunity arises.
I'm sure we've had markets like these at times before but I honestly cannot remember them.
Still nothing happening in the FX world
Come back in 2 hours and hopefully something will be happening then. The major pairs are stuck in 10 pip ranges.
The AUD selling from earlier has eased as have the chances of a Tuesday RBA rate cut on futures markets, now back below 60% again.
EUR/USD testing Fibo resistance again
I'm still hanging in with my long position from earlier in the week but to be honest I've got no strong view at the moment. Medium term I still think it goes higher but as to whether we see the 1.27 handle or the 1.32 handle first? I'm really not sure; stay in the market and hope the lights get brighter!
61.8% resistance level at 1.2960 and sell orders reported at 1.2965/70 (which probably means stop-loss orders above 1.2975!).
AUD/NZD: Selling noted as rate-cut liklihood increases
The chances of a rate cut by the RBA next Tuesday are edging very slowly higher, with the market now pricing in a 62% liklihood, up from 57% last week. We are seeing some modest AUD/NZD selling this morning which makes sense, as longer-term position holders take out some hedge protection ahead of risk events.
No major flows in early Tokyo trade
Overall retail sales came in at -1.2% YoY but as usual the market ignores Japanese data. USD/JPY has had a couple of looks at the aforementioned offers near 82.20 but is backing away thus far. The technical resistance at 1.2960 in EUR/USD is also holding firm.
USD/JPY trying to force its way higher
USD/JPY is back above 82.10 as the bulls try to regain control but interbank reports suggest that sell orders 82.20/25 will be hard to shift.
EUR/USD: Fibo resistance at 1.2960
The 61.8% retracement of the recent fall from 1.3005 to 1.2880 comes in at 1.2960, right where we are currently trading.
EUR/JPY, EUR/USD: Looks like weak stops triggered
Not much liquidity this morning so if there are any weak trailing stops in the market, which there probably were at 106.25 in EUR/JPY, then they have now been triggered. EUR/USD also accelerated above 1.2945 so its likely that stops were tripped there also.
Small sell order triggered in EUR/JPY
I've been running a small long position for a couple of days but I've felt that my entry level is wrong. I had a small sell order in at 106.20 and that's just been triggered. I think this trade will be a matter of probing until I can find the right entry levels and as always you can follow my foolhardiness in the members section.