EUR/JPY: Still stuck in 124/126 consolidation range
It's pretty hard to get overly bearish on this pair despite the big rise of recent months and the price action of recent days certainly feels consolidative. That said, I wouldn't buy it right here at 125.25, preferring to play the edges of the range and maybe initiate longs if the base continues to hold.
EUR/USD: Large buying interest reported towards 1.2900
I know it's quite a ways away but its good to know where the big buy orders are reportedly situated.
USD/JPY: Still looking to options market for leads
The heavy buying of downside protection has now eased according to interbank reports, and now we must wait and see whether the spot price starts gravitating towards the option strikes at 95.25.
The immediate short-term danger would still seem to be to the downside in my opinion, especially seeing the absence of a rally post-BOJ nominees. I'd suggest a 95.70/96.30 range with mild short-term bearish bias, but be ready to buy any deeper dips towards 94.00/50 as the medium-term bull trend is still in total control.
All 3 BOJ nominees expected to be confirmed by Japanese parliament
The meeting takes place today and only the the nomination of the extremely-dovish Iwata seems to be in question.
- If all 3 are accepted it would normally be seen as Yen negative, but then again much of this is already written into the market.
- The bigger danger would seem to be that we may get some rejections, and that could lead to heavy Yen short-covering.
Cable; bearish overall but short-covering has started
Thankfully the flow guy is fit again because his info here was priceless; the big players were looking to buy dips towards 1.4800 and he told us 24 hours before the street knew.
Initial support is at 1.4975 (chart in members) but remember that we are in a big bear trend so try to be patient. Overall retracement targets now are previous lows at 1.5265 or possible a 38.2% retracement (1.6340/1.4830) at 1.5410.
Highlights today in GBP/AUD and AUD/JPY
- GBP/AUD has based twice at 1.4400 but has not yet been able to break back above previous record lows at 1.4550 (charts in members):
- AUD/JPY has stalled at the huge physical and psychological barriers at 100.00:
- USD/JPY sees some large option expiries at 95.25 later tonight which may prove magnetic:
- AUD/USD, reports of heavy sell orders on 1.0400, 1.0420 and 1.0480:
Good luck today++
Cable: Buyers staying patient
The flow guy thankfully didn't die from alcohol poisoning and is back in full voice. There still is some decent interest to buy cable but they are not chasing the market higher, probably assuming that the market should come to the buyers in a bear trend. 1.4800 looks like its attracting the bids and with downside stops now being reported below 1.4900, we might even see that level fairly soon.
USD/JPY: Solid sell orders 96.50 through 96.80
Apologies for the much longer than anticipated absence and it seems I've missed more Yen weakness.
I've got no idea what to do so I'm doing nothing.
USD/JPY drifts lower as AUD/JPY resistance holds
The most obvious play in recent trade has been to sell near 96.25 sell orders in expectation of a move lower toward big option strikes at 95.25. The AUD rally has also ensured that USD/JPY pressure remains in place.
Edit: I am offline for a few hours.
AUD: You simply can't keep it down
AUD/USD is testing chart resistance at 1.0370, AUD/JPY is testing 99.50 and AUD/NZD is headed for 1.2650. Looks like the market was a bit short overall and unless you're bullish, best leave the Teflon currency alone.
I'm not sure where all the new jobs are being created but it's hard to argue with it. Odds of a rate cut have slumped to virtually zero! Now we wait and see if real money buyers start to chase this move.
EUR/GBP: Starting to look a bit over-bought
The charts (see members) seem to be stalling around .8800 while cable and EUR/USD have had contrasting fortunes in recent sessions. Cable fell but then rallied after poor economic data whilst the EUR/USD has broken chart support and closed below a big psychological level. The signs are starting to suggest that the EUR/GBP trend may be losing momentum and the first intraday resistance level to look for is near .8710.
AUD/JPY technicals: Still looking bullish
I've posted both short and medium-term charts in the members section and both look bullish.
The hourly chart has a nice wedge formation, which is usually a sign of trend continuation and normally breaks higher in this case.
AUD/NZD back near 1.2600 again
The downward revision in inflation forecasts is leading to a substantial downward revision in wholesale NZ interest rates (thanks Rich) and the NZD is staying under pressure.
Earlier highs and technical resistance at 1.2610 but best to wait until after the Australian jobs numbers before jumping in.
Better to have no large positions if volatility starts to pick up
I know most people like to simply take a position and hope they get it right but I don't like to trade like that if I think volatility is about to increase. Especially if I have a large position, I'm likely to get stopped out with the big volatile swings so I prefer to be small and nimble and ready to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. I will still have my biases, like buying USD/CHF or EUR/GBP dips, but in times of volatility I don't have to rely on getting the direction always spot-on, I can simply wait for exhaustive stop-driven sell-offs and then put on my trades.
NZD falls surprisingly hard after RBNZ; AUD/NZD trade idea
I don't find anything that the RBNZ did or said in any way surprising; they've been saying for the last 3 years that the NZD is overvalued. Whilst their tone on rates was slightly more dovish I still think that a 100 pip drop in NZD/USD is an over-reaction.
I don't trade the NZD but the 50% retracement of the big fall in AUD/NZD from 1.3080 to 1.2140 comes in near 1.2610 and might be worth a short-term sell looking for a quick 100 pip dip?
EUR sentiment turns again
The EUR is lower across the board and the market is again finding plenty of reasons to be bearish on the single currency. I got stopped out of my small EUR/USD long position and for the first time this year I am position-less. EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD were also big movers and if I were to go short the EUR at present, I think I'd do so against the oversold GBP.
I'm not finding much of a rhythm in these markets so I will keep position sizes very small until things improve.