EUR/JPY fast approaching 130.00
- EUR/USD accelerated above 1.3035 and it looks like some stops were targeted above there.
- EUR/JPY is closing in on 130.00 where barriers are rumoured and stops are reported through there.
- Heavy offers were noted in USD/JPY near 99.70 and one bank reports that some very clever traders were selling there a short time ago.
Kiwi keeps on powering higher
The NZD is trading at post-float highs on its TWI and is showing no signs of slowing down. Those who've been trying to pick a top in it are getting very frustrated and until NZD/JPY starts topping out, its probably best to go with the flow.
Cable: Testing support levels near 1.5250
This has been a big level for the cable, providing a weekly low which held for months, then providing very solid daily resistance which broke though on the third attempt.
Overall the cable downtrend is still dominant, so if trying to buy this dip, keep stops tight and don't be too greedy on the topside.
EUR/GBP is also looking fairly constructive and longs are now preferred whilst the pair stays above .8450. I'm looking for a short term range somewhere between .8500/60.
AUD/USD: Unable to generate any momentum
Yesterday I thought the break below 1.0380 might generate some bearish momentum but it was not to be. A bullish NZD and strong AUD/JPY demand put paid to that idea.
I'm hearing that there are some sell orders at 1.0430 and some stops above there. More range trading ahead it seems.
USD/JPY: Too dangerous for me at these levels
We've come 700 pips in around 9 trading sessions and the market is showing no signs of slowing down. There are certain to be barriers at 100.00 but it will also act like a magnet with plenty of stops just above. Support levels are quite far away, with nothing decent until the Friday closing levels back below 98.00.
Obviously the bullish bias still dominates but getting the timing right is the key. I'm looking at a 97.50/101.50 trading range for the rest of the week.
EUR/USD: Consolidating ahead of further gains
Unless Mr Bernanke says something unexpected to strengthen the USD, or some EZ news breaks which undermines the EUR, we can expect the EUR/USD to gradually edge higher in line with the move in the crosses.
EUR/GBP looks pretty constructive now above .8450 and similarly so EUR/CHF whilst 1.2130 holds.
EUR/JPY looks to have scope now for 134.50 and support levels start at prior highs near 128.00.
Whilst the crosses are bullish it will be difficult for EUR/USD to fall and a 1.2950/1.3150 trading range over coming sessions looks like a likely scenario.
EUR/USD: Decent bids close by
I'm hearing from a good source that there are some decent bids close by in the EUR/USD near 1.2960/65. Same source tells me of good sized offers near 1.3020/25.
EUR/CHF: Ready to follow EUR/JPY higher?
I've had quite a few enquiries today regarding EUR/CHF and whether we should be looking to buy it or not at current levels? Yes of course we should is my simple answer although we still need to keep our stops below 1.2000 and this might be too expensive for some people. The last time that EUR/JPY accelerated, EUR/CHF lagged for quite a few days if not a week or so, but when it did start to move it moved 500 pips quite quickly. Surely history will repeat itself, or?
Personally I prefer to be long USD/CHF rather than EUR/CHF, as being long EUR against anything at the moment makes me a bit nervous after the Cypriot banking deal. I've bought smalls at .9355, lets see what happens.
Today's deliberate mistake was..
I forgot to post the Asian market open commentary which you can view here on FX Street, apologies vielmals.
Asia still trading quietly
Nothing much has changed from this morning so the same levels still apply when we head into the European open. Most of the big prop traders I know of are long of USD/JPY now which makes me think we may see some pullbacks before the big push towards 100.00 happens. Cable and EUR should range trade for the next few sessions and the Aussie is susceptible to a sell-off in my view.
Yen fairly steady in early Tokyo trade
No sign of any more panic selling of the Yen and USD/JPY is relatively stable around 98.50 as Asia opens for the trading week.
Choppy 30 pip moves are going to be the norm so adjust position sizes, stop loss orders accordingly.
I'm not getting involved in this, happy to sit back and wait for some trading opportunities if they should appear.
EUR/USD: Period of range trading now favoured
The EUR crosses are turning bullish with EUR/JPY making new highs and EUR/AUD positioning at extreme-short levels. The USD remains solidly in demand most especially against the yen, but overall sentiment towards the US is still stronger than it is towards the EZ.
Sounds to me like we should have some periods of range-trading in the EUR/USD and I'd look to buy near 1.2850/75 and sell near 1.3125/50 (chart in members).
USD/JPY flows: Big players re-building positions
It's unusual for the really big players to get involved on a Monday morning but it seems that they are desperate to get their positions on before the Yen falls any further. A variety of banks are reporting large flows of well over $2 billion in USD/JPY already this morning. The Lagarde comments that BOJ policies will help global growth have spurred on the Yen selling.
Yen crosses: Still much too dangerous to try selling rallies
I think the market has turned universally bullish on the yen crosses and as I said on Friday, there is no knowing where and when these moves will end. Dips will be vicious from time to time when the very short-term players get caught at the wrong levels, but for now at least we must wait on those dip opportunities.
Normally after big overnight moves, Tokyo will come in and take some profit but I'm not sure that we are experiencing 'normal' markets at the moment.
EUR/AUD: Long position looking safer
I went long of this pair on Friday near 1.2400 and have a stop in place now below 1.2325. I may look to book some partial profits near 1.2620 but prefer to wait and see what it looks like if/when we get there. IMM positioning reports showed quite extreme EUR shorts and AUD longs, another good reason to be long of this pair.
Cable: Topside stop done but still bearish overall
Huge move in GBP/JPY on Friday ensured that those large stops I mentioned were easily accounted for above 1.5300 in the cable. The trend is still bearish so I'm happy to try and sell rallies towards Fibo resistance (38.2% 1.6340/1.4830) near 1.5400. Initial support is at prior highs at 1.5250.
AUD/USD: Bears looking to reassert control
The break below 1.0380 technical support has the bears back in short-term control and a test of more important lows near 1.0150 is now favoured in coming weeks. I say weeks rather than days as overall momentum is still lacking.