AUD/USD: Decent support reported near .9500
The Guru has gone long at .9512, referring to a 'significant' buyer close by and FXWW888 is reporting a buy recommendation from Morgan Stanley at the same level.
AUD/JPY: Trying hard but support still holding
The cross has briefly broken below 90.00 but has been unable to maintain those gains. I've increased my long position here at 90.15 and will still stop out below 89.90.
AUD: Not much reaction after RBA minutes
The usual 20/25 pip noise after the RBA minutes came out exactly as expected; nothing tradeable here.
AUD/JPY at 90.00 is still the big level to watch with stops (mine included) below 89.90. AUD/USD looks like a medium-term .9430/.9630 proposition.
USD/JPY/EUR: The three ugly sisters
The big level for me is 93.40 in USD/JPY; this is where the big 1000 pip launch began after the April BOJ meeting. I don't mean that this level should hold to the exact pip, that's a ridiculous expectation in these volatile markets, but I do think that we need to watch for daily closes in and around there to see what happens.
- If Fed begins to taper then that should be initially USD/JPY bearish as risk-off trades will be in vogue.
- (I can't even begin to imagine what might happen if USD/JPY starts trading in mid 80's again after all the BOJ action?)
- Macro funds remain long of pairs like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY and this is also a downside risk factor.
- BUT, surely Fed tapering and current BOJ policy IMPLIES that USD/JPY MUST go higher? Well yes, but that might be the medium term reaction.
In other words, don't get married to your opinions and positions. Certainly it's correct to have a bias but wait for 'silly' moves as they will certainly happen in both directions.
USD/JPY/EUR are the three ugly sisters and it just depends from which direction the light is shining to make one or the other look briefly 'attractive'.
AUD: No surprises expected from RBA minutes
I got stopped out of my AUD/USD longs at break-even and am still running a much smaller AUD/JPY long with a stop below 90.00. The big risk event for AUD traders will be the release of the RBA minutes from the June meeting, when no change was made to official interest rate policy.
I'm not expecting any surprises but the market is nervous and prone to sharp spikes either way. Sentiment remains very AUD-bearish but AUD short-positioning is nearing extreme levels. The levels to watch in the AUD/USD are a pretty wide .9430/.9630 and we could well see prices near either/both edge(s) in coming sessions.
Excellent piece on Fed tapering from Nomura
Here's a link to an excellent summation of the choices (or lack of) which now face the Fed.
Market getting very nervous ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
I'm surprised by the big over-reactions we are seeing to any comments whatsoever regarding the Fed meeting tomorrow. The FT article caused a massive flurry of activity, and this was only one man's opinion, so obviously the market is not comfortable with its overall positioning. We saw a big macro fund dumping much of its positions last week and as any good trader will tell you, if you don't quite understand what's happening then its time to get out.
The FX market is playing a secondary role, reacting to what happens elsewhere, and that's also how I plan to trade this market, reacting to developments rather than predicting them.
Today's main event during the Asian session will be the release of the RBA meeting minutes from last month.
AUD positioning: Reducing again for overnight trade
I don't like running much risk overnight and even though the market is totally dead, I'm still wary of another attempt to get to 93.40 in USD/JPY pre-Fed. I've reduced my AUD/JPY and AUD/USD positions; you can't go broke booking profits.
See you tomorrow.
PB is short for prime broker
I see some people asking a question of 888 on his protected Twitter but I don't think he can reply as his account is protected.
So allow me; PB is short hand for prime broker and they are the big banks who allow hedge funds to trade using their name or their credit line, via a prime brokerage agreement.
AUD/JPY: Booking small partial profits
My profit order for 1/4 of my position has been triggered at 91.42. I had quite a large position and that allied with my AUD/USD longs gave me a lot of risk, so I'm happy to get some of that off the table.
EUR/GBP: Should provide some leads today during European trade
There are reportedly some very large stop-loss sell orders below the market, under .8460 I'm hearing, and these could prove magnetic during European trade. The EUR is trading with a heavy tone, being dragged lower against the AUD and the USD, and with the market focussing again on the option-book activities of one particularly large Asian central bank, we may be in for a few sessions of EUR weakness.
AUD longs still looks like the correct intraday play
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are trading near intraday highs and I'm sticking to my guns here that we could see another 100 pips in each. No big reasoning here, simply that the market is overly bearish and overly short, just as it always is near an interim base!
Goldies buying AUD/JPY this morning
Once again thanks to https://twitter.com/FXWW888 for hedge fund insider info that Goldman Sachs have been buying AUD/JPY this morning (GS must've been reading my stuff this morning!)
AUD: Not a good day to be short me-thinks
Again, I'm talking my position, but I would not be at all surprised to see AUD/JPY back near 92.00 and AUD/USD near .9700 before the day is out. Everyone is bearish AUD it seems but the big selling interest has now dried up and remember that pretty much everyone was bullish at 1.05. Sometimes the market is simply trading at the 'wrong' levels and that's the feeling I'm getting today.
AUD/USD: Adding to long position
I'm not sure why I've suddenly turned so bullish AUD in the short-term but I have and I'm not going to fight it. I've been having a really good run of late and usually that's the best time to put added risk on, when I'm trading with the market's money!
I've got a reasonably large AUD/JPY long position but I will reduce this below 89.90 and I've just added to my AUD/USD longs at .9575, but I will also reduce this markedly below .9530.
EUR/USD: Topside capped ahead of 1.3400 by big option structure
Many thanks to our hedge fund insider https://twitter.com/FXWW888 for pointing out that there is a big double-no-touch in play in the EUR/USD which will be stoutly defended ahead of 1.3400.