EUR/JPY: Trendline resistance breaks; 50% Fibo next at 129.40
The strong down-trend line on the 4-hourly chart has broken (see chart) and next resistance is at a 50% Fibo near 129.40. This market might be caught a bit short, similar to EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP overnight, so buying intraday dips back to the prior trendline looks like a decent strategy.
USD/JPY takes out recent highs; next targets 99.25 and 99.90
Despite the hedge fund selling earlier, USD/JPY is making new highs and has taken out this weeks highs and a 50% retracement level at 98.75. The next technical targets are at 99.25 and the 61.8% retracement at 99.90 (see chart) and I'll be looking to sell failures at the latter for a quick 80/100 pip swing trade.
AUD/USD: Bouncing off .9220, look for stops above .9265
This is pure guesswork on my part, but most traders think the same way and if I had been selling AUD/USD intraday then I'd probably have my trailing stops above .9265 (see chart).
We moved 60 pips lower off opening levels at .9280 and if we moved 60 pips above there, that would see us near .9340 and that's exactly where I'm hoping to off-load my intraday purchases. Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think we are in a sideways range consolidation so its not an unreasonable ask.
AUD/USD still looking heavy in early Asian markets; next support .9200
All of the Asian markets are now open and the AUD has been the main mover, down to lows at 0.9217 after opening near .9285. I've re-bought on this dip as I think we are in sideways consolidation but I must admit it does have a heavy feel to it at the moment.
Hourly lows at .9200 provide the next technical support level.
USD/JPY: Hedge fund's selling in recent trade near 98.50
FXWW303, our interbank insider, is reporting that hedge funds have been selling USD/JPY in recent trade.
He has been trading AUD/USD from the short side today, in anticipation of month-end selling. He has a very short-term view of the market and whilst it is certainly not everyone's favourite trading method, it is good to get some sense of how the interbank market is leaning.
Don't expect him to get every trade right, but if you combine his thoughts and ideas with our hedge fund insider @FXWW888, then I think that will really help you get a better overview of the market.
AUD/USD: Looking to re-buy near .9235
I've been selling rallies in recent days, reducing my long position to much more manageable levels and improving my entry-average in the process. I've now got a bid in at .9235 as that seems like a good place to increase my longs again. Strategy stops still below .9120.
EUR/USD: Steady above 1.3000 as Sovereign buyers return
Sovereign buyers returned to the EUR/USD when it broke below 1.3000 earlier in the week and this has stabilised the pair after quite a sharp fall in recent weeks. Banks expect end-of-month demand for both the EUR and the USD which should nett out in all liklihood. The crosses also look reasonably steady with EUR making decent gains against the GBP and the CHF.
I've got no strong views on EUR/USD but I do think that buying bigger dips to 1.2900/25 will work out to be a good longer-term strategy.
AUD/USD: Large end-of-financial-year flows anticipated today
The AUD should be in for a busy day with large end-of-month and end-of-financial-year flows anticipated during the Asian session and particularly at today's London Fix. I'm a bit surprised to read that these flows are expected to be heavily AUD positive, after the big falls in local markets, but that's what the banks are reporting. [Edit: FXWW303 tells me that he expects the month-end flows to be AUD negative so no definite consensus, apart from fact that there will be some big flows].
The short-term down-trend is still in control (see chart) but the consolidation channel between .9250/.9375 seems to be the dominant factor there.
FXWW888 is reporting downside stops below .9230 which suggests that some of the shorter-term hedge funds are trying to pick a base.
I'm still long with a stop below .9120.
GBP: Giving bulls like me quite a fright
Maybe my GBP bullishness of the moment is totally misguided or perhaps I've gotten the timing wrong, but the price action yesterday in cable was very bearish and rallies were almost non-existent until Europe closed. EUR/GBP is back up towards the upper end of its short-term ranges and cable has closed below previous technical support at 1.5270/90.
I was up a few times overnight nursing this latest sick child but remain long with a stop at 1.5100.
Cable: Eyeing technical support after GDP data
The overnight lows were near 1.5290 which is also the 61.8% retracement of the big up-move from 1.5010 to 1.5750. I've doubled my long position at 1.5295.
I think the market is looking around for stops more than having any particularly strong trend.
NZD/JPY now +1% on the day
Definitely looked and felt as if the poor cousin Kiwi had been dragged down by the big bad Aussie and now we are seeing the relief rally. I think I'm going to have to reconsider this self-imposed exile on the flightless one :) AUD/NZD is back below 1.1900 and this is a definite sell-rally pair if every I saw one.
Modest gains in NZD, AUD but quiet otherwise in Asia
I think the basing in the NZD is an important development which could have implications for other pairs. NZD/CHF has bottomed out at an important Fibo retracement, AUD/NZD looks toppy now at 1.2000 and the NZD/USD made decent gains after poor-ish trade data, usual signs of a bottom.
The cable also looks reasonably strong after basing at a 6.8% retracement, and that after a double-bottom formed. I've added to my small long-term long position.
Not sure on EUR, but I think the banking reforms might be important in that they could start to drive savings out of the EZ and into the GBP or the CHF? EUR/USD looks and feels like a sideways non-event.
USD/JPY looks to be in range trading mode across all timeframes.
Finally, I'm still long AUD/USD and will look to trade a short-term .9260/.9360 range on the way to .9625/50.
USD/JPY: Back to bad old days with 20 pip ranges
USD/JPY has been ridiculously volatile in recent months, flying around by 300/500 pips session by session. Today we are back to the bad old days of really tight ranges with the pair trading a 20 pip range. Best left alone in my opinion, there will be some silly moves spiking 150/200 pips and then slow sideways trade. Look elsewhere for better pairs to trade.
AUD/USD: Stops reported above .9375
Still quite a way away and I think I will reduce my longs again near .9360, given the chance, and look to re-load on dips to .9260.
NZD, AUD edging higher, dragging other majors alongside
- Still looks like a .9260/.9360 proposition for AUD/USD and I'm sticking with my bottom-picking strategy.
- NZD/USD has edged back toward .7800 and FXWW888 is reporting a return of the directional buyers (they must've been reading my stuff :) )
- Cable has also edged up off overnight lows, which were at the 61.8% retracement 1.5010/1.5750.
NZD: Reaction to data is another bullish signal
The NZD dipped briefly after rather disappointing trade data but is now back above pre-data levels. Only very minor moves of course but all parts of the jig-saw puzzle!