FX trading is all about positioning; how the market is positioned, how comfortable it is with this position, and of course how it wants to be positioned in the near future.
Obviously fundamentals and technicals come into the equation but when a market becomes overly positioned and uncomfortable, that’s when we get decent sized moves (like the Yen last week).
The AUD/USD has twice tried to break back below 1.0200, second time was on the back of a disappointing Capex headline number, but each time its come roaring back to 1.0230.
This market is short and headed higher imho.