AUD/USD: Capex data today; using .9270 as downside guide

The AUD/USD steadfastly refused to fall when the market was turning bullish on the USD, the big question now is will it also refuse to move if the USD turns the other way? Or will AUD/USD lead the way?

We are unlikely to get any answers during today’s Asian session but I’m firmly in the buy-dip camp. The pair couldn’t fall below .9270 earlier in the week when iron-ore prices were falling, so I’m using this level as my downside guide.

Capex data at 11:30am Sydney time should ensure some volatility enters the market. There is quite a wide range of expectations for Q2 real Capex, with analysts tipping anything from -4.1% to +3.2%. Any + number will be modestly bullish for the AUD whilst a number below -1% will have the opposite effect.