• Possible double bottom at 1.1200 (see chart);
  • Prices have fallen already a long way in what is normally a very stable pair;
  • NZ rates certainly more likely to go up rather than down but this is already priced in.

I can easily visualise this pair trading back towards 1.1700 again and of course a break and hold above there could confirm a double-bottom pattern. Risk-reward favours buying dips with stops well below 1.1200.