Comments on: Useful AUD facts (or not so useful!): AUD/USD headed for 1.07 in January! https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/ The Professional Source Thu, 07 Feb 2013 02:33:57 +0000 hourly 1 By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-15791 Thu, 07 Feb 2013 02:33:57 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-15791 Hi Kyle, good to hear from you. The site is still fairly basic but there are significant upgrades in the pipeline. Nice of you to drag up this old post 🙂 Well I got it sorta right, it did rally early in January. The fact that it couldn’t go higher despite all real money buyers is probably another very bearish indicator?
Btw the %age chance is derived from the futures mkt and what they are pricing in

]]> By: Kyle https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-15788 Thu, 07 Feb 2013 02:23:13 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-15788 ‘pricing in 63% chance of a rate cut’

I admit to wondering at length about the formula used to derive such a definite and rather precise number–I see this type of a statistic fairly often.

Almost regardless of its accuracy, it would be nice to know exactly what is being measured, from when to when, and how, to come up with the figure…

PS I’m happy to find your site here!

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-13607 Wed, 02 Jan 2013 01:41:30 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-13607 Certainly been hard to pick Peter, I’ve seldom seen such prolonged periods of range trading but perhaps this latest Yen move might be about to stir things up??

]]> By: Peter-W https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-13606 Wed, 02 Jan 2013 01:34:44 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-13606 That makes sense (if anything can in forex lately). Thanks for the clarification. Watching the moves over the last couple of years I have found my self wondering if a coin toss would give a better outcome! To me its a bit like footy tipping… 😉

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-13605 Wed, 02 Jan 2013 00:52:33 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-13605 Hi Peter. My logic (if an ex-cable trader can have such a thing) is that after stocks rose in December, there’s a >70% chance of more gains in Jan which implies risk on. Therefore we will have one of the “43%” Jans where the AUD rises by around 3% on average. Lies, damned lies, and statistics 🙂

]]> By: Peter-W https://fxww.com/useful-aud-facts-or-not-so-useful-audusd-headed-for-1-07-in-january/#comment-13603 Wed, 02 Jan 2013 00:09:37 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=4063#comment-13603 Hi Sean

Happy New Year. I watch your posts with interest!

But, wouldn’t it be correct to say the AUD has fallen 57% of the time in January? (Unlikely to have been exactly flat).

So wouldn’t statistics therefore suggest that we get a risk-OFF move this month and that we may see the AUD/USD FALL by over 2% which would take us under 1.0200?

Not that I trade….just interested.

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