Sean Lee, just my boots on the ground views. I hate the lack of fiscal discipline here in Japan, these guys make the Greeks look like Uncle Scrooge. No sense of crisis anywhere. Maybe that’s why the party is able to keep rolling on!

for the nuclear power parts, I would thought it’s good for USD/JPY as it solve energy issue better for Nikki corporations.

regards,

Mike

Most of the USD/JPY move since late 2012 has been driven by speculators. and there are no profits for speculators who don’t close their winning trades, so eventually they will take profits and buy back yen, for whatever reason. Will there be enough dip buyers to hold it up? is the question.

Right now PM Abe looks very stable in his position – there hasn’t been a Japanese PM with ratings as high as his for longer than I can remember. Most of his recent predecessors (including him in his first term) were gone after a year. But his ratings remain high, around 60% apparently.

Still, Abe might decide to turn back on Japan’s nuclear power plants at some stage, which could flip Japan’s recent trade balance deficits back to surpluses. This is a possible surprise factor, something to watch I think. Bad stuff happening somewhere in the rest of the world may also force the specs to close their USD/JPY longs to offset losses elsewhere.

what’s your take for U/J dip to 90, in which scenario(s) you would image could cause this happen.

Thanks