Comments on: USD/JPY: Massive expiries ($27 billion) over next 5 days https://fxww.com/usdjpy-massive-expiries-27-billion-over-next-5-days/ The Professional Source Tue, 17 Dec 2013 07:33:53 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jack1 https://fxww.com/usdjpy-massive-expiries-27-billion-over-next-5-days/#comment-33962 Tue, 17 Dec 2013 07:33:53 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=11396#comment-33962 So much option trade on usd-jpy. Do these guys hedge against their spot positions at 103 plus level? if true, then, u-jpy will drop. if false, u-jpy may go up if these guys also push up in spot. For option writers, they want u-jpy to drop and they can sell it on spot.

Fed won’t tapper in this meeting. But, they may update their forward guide of Fed rate to start to hike in 2nd Q of 2014 in order to boost short-term bond yield.

Low Fed rate in long-run is an major cause (macro driver) for low inflation, disinflation, deflation, etc. My study of Japanese lost decades with zero rate and quite low inflation. BoJ currently measure will fail to boost inflation. Only BoJ start to hike rate to 2%, inflation will rise above 2%.

]]> By: Tom https://fxww.com/usdjpy-massive-expiries-27-billion-over-next-5-days/#comment-33960 Tue, 17 Dec 2013 06:17:21 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=11396#comment-33960 When reading between the lines, taper means risks off? It should be especially if stocks fall heavily.

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