Comments on: Time to be short USD

By: Jason

Jason — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 01:19:00 +0000

In reply to Sean Lee. Thanks Sean!

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 00:32:13 +0000

Hi Jason, I did mention in recent days that I believe that this structure has already rolled off on June 1st and was no longer in play overnight? I’m not 100% sure but will try and find out but certainly I heard no reports of Panda activity

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 00:16:35 +0000

Don’t like risk-reward at these lvls Jasper, be patient Id say, wait for dips or wait until nxt week

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:54:22 +0000

thanks Sean, That’s crystal clear.

By: Jason

Jason — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:53:01 +0000

Good morning Sean,

The dnt you mentioned is always in my mind, the last serious test is on 30 April at 97.005, do you think it is going to hold this time after over a month?

It is a possible target at 95.79 if it eventually breakthrough 97 level?

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:48:16 +0000

Yes Tony, all about liquidity. I’ve heard of some big flows, one guy trying to buy EUR15 billion against the AUD, another guy trying to exit a 10billion USD/JPY position! It takes weeks sometimes to trade out of these. Normally the big banks work these orders, sell a chunk, buy some back, then sell on rallies

By: Jason

Jason — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:42:47 +0000

Good morning Sean,

The dnt you mentioned is always in my mind, the last serious test was on 30 Apr at 97.005, do you think it can hold this time?

Is it a possible target at 95.79 if it eventually breakthrough?

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:17:35 +0000

Sean, when the market is caught with large positions heavily skewed one way, and if the risk is heavy to the downside, why are those large positions not simply closed in the same way I would close a trade I didn’t like? Is it a liquidity issue?

By: JasperD

JasperD — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:02:19 +0000

In reply to Sean Lee. Thanks Sean. How about cable? I exited GBPUSD long at 1.56 (didn't expect to squeeze another 80 pips!) and is debating whether to add it back. With the vertical rise we have in the past 24 hours, I feel it could easily retrace to 1.55 if NFP delivers a positive surprise to subdued expectations.

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 22:50:06 +0000

Always need to be careful Jasper but the market is caught with large positions all heavily skewed one way, long USD/JPY. Of course there is some topside risk but its more heavily weighted to downside imho so I’m quite comfortable to be short USD/JPY heading into NFP.
But I’m a spot trader, that could change in an instant 🙂

By: JasperD

JasperD — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 22:47:06 +0000

Hi Sean, are you still running short USD position heading into NFP later today? Feels like a bit of lottery at this time…

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 22:20:30 +0000

You’re analysis and information has been excellent in recent days Sean. I had a small long at 99.10 UJ, seeing that support at 98.80., Stopped out at 99.70 when support broke and quickly reversed with a Nikkei short on a 50 point trailing stop, Best trade to date in part thanks to your overview.