I have the feeling that any new cycle of instability in Europe will give the AUD another boost since it seems to be one of the main safe heavens out there. What I find most interesting is that the RBA thinks that the peak in the resource sector investment (capital spending) is for next year. This would mean their expectations is that China will still continue providing enough demand so that the investment in mining isn’t slowed this year. So I agree with you that risk trades will be overall weak this year, but I would think that RBA move is more reactive to the QE-infinity, OMT, BOJ programs, etc.

So my analysis goes like this (also referring to your previous post about EURAUD): while the EURCHF is above 1.2, we should favor a bullish stance on EURAUD. If at any moment, there is a new crisis (and it seems soooo likely) in the eurozone and the EURCHF hits the wall again at 1.2, we should prefer shorting EURAUD. The drop in the EUR index should give us targets.