Comments on: Looks like the ‘race to the bottom’ also picking up pace

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:36:24 +0000

Hi Brady, I 100% agree with the direction of the trade but the mkt is positioned quite long of GBP still so I’m not sure if the timing is right at the moment. I think using either EUR or JPY as a funding currency is sensible. Personally I prefer to use CAD or AUD as the carry ccy, but it really comes down to a matter of personal choice.

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:33:01 +0000

Hi Droidbean. I think this is an important break higher so best to cover shorts on any meaningful dips. This pair seldom moves in a straight line so I’d expect 1.1050/1.1200 now as new consolidation range. The market is long of NZD still (probably with good reason) so best be careful once these breaks occur.

By: Brady

Brady — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 07:43:52 +0000

Hi Sean

I’ve been watching the pound for a while and in reference to your quote:
I’m avoiding the other majors (for medium-term plays) because sentiment towards the USD remains moderately bullish and long positioning in GBP and NZD is still an important factor.

Do you mean that the NZD and GBP are going to be affected by the USD strength too much even to trade them off against other currencies? I’m looking into GBP/JPY longs with BoE tightening up and BoJ easing away.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks

Rgds,
Brady

By: Droidbean

Droidbean — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 05:06:35 +0000

Hi Sean,

what your analysis of the AUD/NZD rally ? will this stop and get back to your suggested range of 1.0925 – 1.11000 ?

This rally has got my portfolio in deep red