Comments on: I’ve got a bad feeling about these Yen crosses https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/ The Professional Source Fri, 14 Dec 2012 04:14:57 +0000 hourly 1 By: Asad https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12163 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 04:14:57 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12163 Yen is acting very very strange….!!!! it held for 2 weeks in consolidation and them it break through it’s Multy year trend line ?????????????????????

]]> By: Asad https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12159 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 04:11:48 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12159 Hi sean, JPY fell, in 5 years that low and you you warned me and were right. I think i have learned my lesson. positioning were small,

Definitely small positioning helps entering market again and a gain and I am working on next entry thou I have lost a big chunk so far.

I t smelt bad to me a long ago but being a new bee I made wrong calculations for entries but I don’t regret it as i have learned a lot in 1 year communication with you than reading the God Dam books

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12148 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 03:48:41 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12148 Good luck Mike, think 11050 is possible?? Europe will probably open bullish again

]]> By: Mike https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12142 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 03:31:04 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12142 I have the same feeling.

This year is tough for most HFs, and they are desperately trying to make some money before year ends. IMM hinted this and so interbank flow, like herds.

I will short it and building positions, mainly EYEN

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12126 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 02:45:57 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12126 Yeah indeed, this time of year can be very hairy but on the flip side, if you get it right the reward can be quick. That fiscal cliff smash up like you say would certainly send it tumbling

]]> By: fxgai https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12105 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 01:13:13 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12105 Wow, thanks for that. Here I was thinking I’d have to wait till next year for a new batch of data. I just did a Google on USD/JPY and bond yield spread correlation, and spooky stuff, but I found articles dated Dec 2010 (including one with your name on it) talking about how the correlation was breaking down.

Maybe this is something that happens at year end?

If so, then given the tendency over time for the correlation to hold, perhaps indeed we are looking at some very attractive levels to short from. A nice fiscal cliff smash up could help such trades too. Needs some guts to take such risk at this time of year though…

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12104 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 01:06:17 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12104 Just had a look fxgai, trade data next Wednesday morning. I know its a dangerous game trying to pick these bubbles bursting but with other risk assets starting to fall, this momentum in Yen crosses seems unsustainable

]]> By: fxgai https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12100 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:54:32 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12100 Gidday Sean, I think the whole thing has been completely overdone too, but there’s guys like Jim O’Neill at GSAM who’ve been talking about how they think 88 in usd/jpy is not out of the question this year etc etc. For all of that to play out it would seem to require a big decoupling of the correlation between usd/jpy and US/Japanese bond yield spreads. But last time I looked US 10 year yields were still well below 2.00%. Maybe it’s the 2 year yield spread I was supposed to be looking at, but even still to me it looks like the yen crosses are are a lot like Willy Coyote at this point… Time shall tell!
Might be worth looking up when the next Japanese trade / current account data is set for release too.

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12098 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:30:42 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12098 Yes, I stopped myself out at 10525 a few days ago so it’s probably ripe for a fall 🙂 My timing has been pretty horrendous these last few months but as always its just a matter of reducing positioning and not losing anything until the tide turns my way.

]]> By: Anas https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12096 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:27:48 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12096 indeed!!
have you given up on the short you had?

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12095 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:24:18 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12095 Who knows Anas, it could still do so? Maybe a poor PMI number triggers stops below 10480 and gets the ball rolling?? Some of that vol would be a nice Christmas present

]]> By: Anas https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12094 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:21:16 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12094 Feelings…
I have a funny one toward the AUD finishing this year around 1.0200 minimum.
I just miss last year when AUd moved 200-400 pips a day :(…

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12093 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:18:06 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12093 Maybe so Ozzie, and these ‘feelings’ can definitely be expensive from time to time when trading counter-trend

]]> By: Ozzie https://fxww.com/ive-got-a-bad-feeling-about-these-yen-crosses/#comment-12091 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:14:49 +0000 http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=3728#comment-12091 I lost 30% of my cap on counter-trend trading jpy crosses! It’s immortal.

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