Technical Analysis – FXWW.com

Global Liquidity Conditions: So what should we be trading in spot FX world?

Sean Lee — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 22:53:11 +0000

Global liquidity conditions were, according to quite a few learned commentators (eg Morris Goldstein 1998 https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/iieppress/pa55.htm) a contributing factor in the 1997 Asian financial crisis as well as the 2008 global financial crisis. Now when I read through the interbank research in the FXWW-Messenger chatroom, its all about Repos, TOMOs, POMOs and bills! Credit conditions in the G4 (US, EU, Japan and UK) can have a huge spillover effect into emerging economies and this is going to cause FX volatility.

Never having been a big EM trader, I am left looking to the major pairs and crosses for some ‘obvious’ trades. Seemingly the obvious play is so sell the traditional ‘risk-off’ pairs such as AUD/JPY etc but these trades are already quite mature and positioning indicators have the NZD for example at red-hot-extremely oversold. That doesn’t mean it can’t fall any further but the bigger moves have probably happened already. I also sense that the massive falls in these pairs in 2008-2009 came after about 5-6 years of carry-trade building, something which we haven’t had this time around.

So to the majors. The pair that seems most interesting at current levels is EUR/GBP. I suppose the first question to ask is whether the UK should even be included in our G4 list at all. Sure the City of London is still a major financial centre but there is still so much uncertainty regarding Brexit that I cannot be long GBP at the moment with any degree of comfort. Then there is the whole question of positioning; is the market really very short GBP and ready to panic buy? I’m really not sure on this as its hard to get definitive data. We will have to rely on market behaviour to tell us this one. Finally we look at the subjective area of technical analysis and I have decent support coming in at .8810/40 (but then again I was looking for a support level!)

If we are going to get a few bumpy months in the financial markets then I think its a decent risk-reward trade to be long EUR/GBP. I’m starting to build a long position and will reassess if we break below .8700.

Source link: https://fxww.com/global-liquidity-conditions-trading-spot-fx-world/

GBP crosses technicals

Sean Lee — Thu, 08 May 2014 23:08:24 +0000

GBP/JPY sitting right on daily trend-line support;
EUR/GBP sitting right above very important technical support.

Source link: https://fxww.com/gbp-crosses-technicals/

NZD/USD: Next technical resistance at .8647

Sean Lee — Thu, 24 Apr 2014 00:55:44 +0000

There is a 50% retracement level and an hourly high coming in at the same level.

Source link: https://fxww.com/nzdusd-next-technical-resistance-8647/

GBP/CHF: Looking to buy near strong technical support at 1.4870

Sean Lee — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 20:09:33 +0000

Trend-line and a 61.8% retracement level converge near 1.4870 (see chart);
If buying this dip, keep stops fairly tight as it is risk-off Friday and some stock-markets are looking very shaky.

Source link: https://fxww.com/gbpchf-looking-to-buy-near-strong-technical-support-at-1-4870/

EUR testing important support levels

Sean Lee — Mon, 20 Jan 2014 01:08:47 +0000

EUR/USD is testing trend-line and 61.8% support at 1.3510/15; a clean break would indicate increased momentum.
EUR/JPY is testing support near 140.40, a clean break would suggest a topping formation in place.

Source link: https://fxww.com/eur-testing-important-support-levels/

AUD/USD still looking heavy

Sean Lee — Sun, 19 Jan 2014 20:59:07 +0000

Asian real money sellers capped the pair on Friday near .8820;
Sentiment remains bearish as the market plays it as a ‘Chinese credit bubble’ proxy;
Technical target at .8570, a 50% retracement of the big rally from .6050.

Source link: https://fxww.com/audusd-still-looking-heavy/

EUR/GBP: Continue to trade the downward channel

Sean Lee — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 21:17:53 +0000

One constant for me is the fact that EUR/GBP is headed lower;
I’m continuing to trade the downward channel (see chart);
Sell rallies towards .8400 looking for .8100.

Source link: https://fxww.com/eurgbp-continue-to-trade-the-downward-channel/

EUR/USD: Short side favoured as crosses look bearish

Sean Lee — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 20:37:15 +0000

EUR/AUD is back at longer term median levels near 1.55 (although the daily up-trend remains in place);
EUR/GBP is headed back sub-.80 in coming months (imho of course);
EUR/JPY as mentioned below, trying to form a topping formation below 143.00;
EUR/USD weekly technicals suggest to me that we are more likely to move lower.

I don’t expect any sudden trend to emerge but I do think that selling intraday rallies is the way to play EUR/USD.

Source link: https://fxww.com/eurusd-short-side-favoured-as-crosses-look-bearish/

EUR/JPY topping formation looking more plausible

Sean Lee — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 19:58:54 +0000

Possible topping formation ahead of 143.00 (see chart);
Needs break and hold below 140.40 to confirm;
Shorts favoured with stops above 143.25.

Source link: https://fxww.com/eurjpy-topping-formation-looking-more-plausible/

AUD/USD: Initial resistance at .8820, look for stronger levels near .8870

Sean Lee — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 04:04:31 +0000

The macro speculative market is piling into AUD/USD shorts, with .8500 seen now as a foregone conclusion and some starting to talk now of levels below .80 cents.

Initial resistance is at previous lows of .8820/25 and a break above there will run into further headwinds near the .8870 breakdown level from earlier today.

Sorry, I’m of no help to anyone in this move and I’m getting it wrong more often than I’m getting it right.

Source link: https://fxww.com/audusd-initial-resistance-at-8820-look-for-stronger-levels-near-8870/

AUD/USD: Favour playing from long side today

Sean Lee — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 20:37:43 +0000

The professional speculative market is quite short of AUD already as a proxy for the ‘China credit bubble’ trade;
The daily chart is trying to form a springboard with rising daily lows (see chart);
If this base holds again, we could easily see a bounce back up above .9050 as shorts get jittery;
Keep stops below .8860 if tempted by this contrarian trade.

Source link: https://fxww.com/audusd-favour-playing-from-long-side-today/

Levels to watch during European trade

Sean Lee — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 05:56:26 +0000

USD/JPY: Technical resistance at 104.50 and sizeable sell orders at 104.60/65.
USD/CAD: Barriers at 1.0975 and 1.1000.
USD/CHF: Stops below .8980.
EUR/JPY: Strong technical resistance near 143.20.

Source link: https://fxww.com/levels-to-watch-during-european-trade-2/

USD/JPY: Still feels like we could get a silly spike to 110+

Sean Lee — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 01:00:15 +0000

I don’t have a position in USD/JPY at the moment and therefore my opinion should carry less weight but for what it’s worth, it feels to me that we may get a sharp spike sometime very soon. This will probably take out technical resistance at 105.50 but my trade of the year is still to sell a failure near 110.50/111.00 for a move back to 90.

If you can get on to this move up to 110, then good luck to you, but I don’t have the patience or energy to ‘nurse’ a long USD/JPY position at the moment.

Source link: https://fxww.com/usdjpy-still-feels-like-we-could-get-a-silly-spike-to-110/

Cable: Bull trend in place but expect more sideways in short-term

Sean Lee — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 00:46:59 +0000

4-hr chart shows the bull trend still in play but the MAs losing momentum (see chart);
Major support should develop now near 1.6250 whilst 1.6600 will attract profit takers in an already-long market;
Sentiment remains GBP-positive and I still expect to see increased GBP strength on crosses like EUR/GBP.

Source link: https://fxww.com/cable-bull-trend-in-place-but-expect-more-sideways-in-short-term/

NZD/USD: Settling above previous hourly highs

Sean Lee — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 03:30:09 +0000

Selling the NZD/USD was obviously not a good idea and the break above previous hourly highs at .8320 now opens the way for further gains, although there is still a daily high at .8335 to be taken out before the bulls can rest easier.

Source link: https://fxww.com/nzdusd-settling-above-previous-hourly-highs/

EUR/JPY: Topping pattern negated with break above 142.90

Sean Lee — Wed, 08 Jan 2014 05:28:02 +0000

Any hopes the bears might have had of a topping formation have been dashed with the break above 142.90.

Source link: https://fxww.com/eurjpy-topping-pattern-negated-with-break-above-142-90/

AUD/NZD testing trend lows again near 1.0750

Sean Lee — Tue, 07 Jan 2014 20:42:26 +0000

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
There seems to be no let-up in the market demand for NZD;
Next technical resistance of note in NZD/USD is at .8335 (see chart).

Source link: https://fxww.com/audnzd-testing-trend-lows-again-near-1-0750/

USD/JPY: Stops triggered in thin markets; technical support at 104.15/20

Sean Lee — Fri, 03 Jan 2014 02:36:16 +0000

Markets remaining very illiquid during holiday period and stop-loss orders make easy pickings;
Next technical support in USD/JPY is at the short-term bullish trendline near 104.15/20;
Previous highs below there at 103.80/90 should provide even stronger support levels.

Source link: https://fxww.com/usdjpy-stops-triggered-in-thin-markets-technical-support-at-104-1520/

Cable: Looking for buying opportunities near 1.6400

Sean Lee — Thu, 02 Jan 2014 20:45:55 +0000

The GBP was hit across the board after not-so-impressive economic data;
EUR/GBP looks to be in a bear trend channel with current parameters at .8200/.8425;
GBP/JPY is in a steep bull trend but pull-backs will also be steep;
I remain very bullish on cable but as always it’s a matter of timing the entry levels correctly;
I’m looking for an hourly base to form near 1.6400 then I will add to my existing longs with tight stops on new buys below 1.6360.

Source link: https://fxww.com/cable-looking-for-buying-opportunities-near-1-6400/

USD/JPY: Technical resistance at 105.50 looking more formidable

Sean Lee — Thu, 02 Jan 2014 20:39:37 +0000

Profit taking in illiquid markets in the Yen crosses was the main feature in overnight trade;
GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY were the hardest hit;
The trends in the crosses remains very strong so dip-buying is still the logical trade;
That said, the 61.8% retracement of the big 124/75.50 collapse at 105.50 is looking stronger this morning.

Source link: https://fxww.com/usdjpy-technical-resistance-at-105-50-looking-more-formidable/