• EUR/CHF: Buying dips towards .9875 gives the highest level of intraday confidence. Talk of trailing stops below .9900 but real money and option related buyers expected below.
• XAG/GBP: Matrix suggests this pair is oversold in the short term and entry levels around 19.00 should offer decent risk-reward to short-term traders.

On a day trading basis, overnight support at 1.1880 needs to be respected whilst a previous support level at 1.1960 could now develop into a pivot point. I will play this range during Asian trade with a definite willingness to take on more risk on the downside rather than the topside.

For now I am betting that a rebound top has been formed at 1.2450 and that we start to head lower again in cable. Levels between 1.2150/1.2250 provide the obvious short-term selling zones.

Support should initially be strong around 1.1650 but even a test of this level would confirm the rebound top to me and strengthen my ‘sell rally’ resolve.

Last week’s weekly close below the 100-week MA will not inspire confidence amongst the GBP bulls. 1.3350 has proven to be a bit of a pivot in recent times so I will look selling opportunities there. There isn’t much in the way of strong technical support until the 1.25-1.27 window, another fact which will be lathering the bulls in sweat!

From a fundamental perspective, the short-term outlook for the UK economy and interest-rate cycle isn’t looking a whole lot different to any of the other major economies but any new supply-chain hiccups will definitely affect the GBP more than other currencies. This risk, alongside the volatile Covid landscape, would be enough to convince me to exit GBP longs until early 2022.

In the meantime, I’m encouraging those following the strategy to stay in dip-buying mode and take advantage of strong rallies to book some profits. Rinse and repeat as usual.

Support should now be firming near 1.2900 and its important to keep an eye on some of the crosses like GBP/AUD which have broken important resistance levels.

I expect GBP to outperform the other majors in coming weeks with the other ‘sterling’ instrument, Silver, also likely to outperform significantly.

On the crosses I still like GBP/NZD a lot but I am concentrating my efforts on cable, and I feel that we could even see levels close to 1.40 over the next 6-8 weeks.

I expect intraday dips to be well supported around 1.2950 and if it starts to rally, I will try and stay patient until my targets are reached.

Care is always needed with cable, as it’s ‘noise’ can be 200+ pips so we will need to be attentive. But as long as it ‘looks bid’, I’m going to be long. I have started accumulating near 1.2750 and as always, lets see what happens.

Have a great week.

My USD/JPY long play has been a waste of time, energy and resources. It just won’t move. I’m close to giving up on that strategy.

The EUR and AUD remain very resilient. I had expected a more aggressive dip but the cross plays seem to be favouring both of these currencies for now.

I’m in the money on my medium-term cable trade and I’m happy to stay long for now. If the market can break back above 1.28 then I feel confident that my interim target at 1.32 will be reached. I will only exit the strategy if we break back below 1.2500 again. I am also looking to buy intraday dips hoping for 100 pip rallies to improve the overall position average.

Elsewhere, the AUD/USD has come a long way since the panic selling at 56c and I feel that momentum may start to wane soon. The surges in iron ore and the precious metals have given the Aussie another leg up but I’m wary of more big risk off events. I prefer to look for a comfortable wide range and play the edges of that eg .68-.74 on the outside.

The big EU stimulus deal could have significant ramifications for the EUR/USD exchange rate and I wouldn’t be shorting this pair anytime soon until we get a strong handle on when and where the big money will flow.

This is always the most dangerous time when it comes to position building, as if I get the timing wrong then it’s easy to get stopped out.

I have started to add at present levels near 1.2545 and will continue to do so if we start making fresh highs. I don’t buy on breaks by the way, I usually wait for the first pullback after the new highs are made.

I’m hoping that yesterdays low at 1.2460 becomes the first marker and stronger support should emerge again at 1.2350-1.2400.

My target for this leg is 1.3200 which I think is achievable.

On a less optimistic note for GBP longs, comments from the BoE seem to be paving the way for a move into negative interest rates and although this is not unexpected, it could lead to a rocky start for the pound in early Monday trade. Let’s wait and see what happens.

If the market ignores the comments then we should see a test of recent highs near 1.2550. Lets hope that volatility increases.

But, my confidence levels are receding as I’ve watched and seen the pound continue to slip against the EUR, JPY and AUD and it’s time to put a hard stop in place. The overnight low was around 1.2250 and if we break back below there then I will cut and run.

Elsewhere it looks like the noisy markets are set to continue with big orders either side of USD/JPY keeping it rangebound and overly short positioning in EUR and AUD now mainly unwound.

Any big moves are now likely to be driven by fresh US-China headlines.

I’m hoping that 1.2350/1.2400 should start to build a base and I’ve started with a small long position. I don’t like running bigger positions over weekends, especially in sterling and especially with another Brexit deadline day looming on June 30th. If it breaks back below 1.22 I will forced out of the trade but a 200 pip risk on a small position compared to 800 pip potential on a bigger position; seems like a good proposal to me.

I am holding off on AUD/USD longs for now as AUD/JPY still looks like it could test levels closer to 70 before steadying.

We’ve just seen AUD/JPY shorts get squeezed and technical stops above 74.60 were triggered. The big levels seem pretty clear here, with big figures at 70-77 providing support and resistance. I prefer to look for exhaustive spikes to re-launch shorts for a final test lower.

I’m a bit annoyed that I missed the buying opportunity in cable near 1.2450 but I expect to get more chances. I’m hoping to build an aggressive long position for a move into the high 1.30s.

AUD/USD should be s/t toppy near .71c and support should be powerful on dips to .67c. Range trading advised until the noise is over.

Ergo, trade of the moment, sell USD/JPY rallies for a move towards 102 in coming weeks.

It’s Friday and Wall Street had another shocker overnight, which means that the risk off plays will be front and centre. I’m not exactly sure how far we can go but I hope to start picking up some AUD/USD on the approach to .6735 and my ideal entry levels for medium-term longs in cable look to be around 1.2410.

USD/JPY looks like it could fall off a cliff and I’m staying small short there and will add on the day if bearish momentum starts to build again.

Should be an interesting day

Cable is still my preferred play and I’m hoping to get back on the long trade somewhere on the 1.24 handle (with a bit of luck and wishful thinking!). One point in my favour is that the bears at 1.22 have turned bulls at 1.27, a sure sign of an interim high! If I told you where I think it might go in the next few weeks you’d probably have me committed so suffice it to say I’m expecting some over-extensions if/when the over-hedged GBP shorts get scared.

AUD/USD should be more sedate, having unwound much of its over-sold properties on the crosses (AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD etc). I’m expecting this market to slip back into more traditional Aussie trading patterns and plenty of sideways stuff should be the order of the next few months.

I’m trying to trade the upswings in cable and any 50 pip dips are buying opportunities whilst this bearish USD momentum holds sway. I’m expecting this 1.2410/20 level to provide some short-term resistance and dips towards 1.2360/70 are now buying zones. I feel that we will see levels near 1.28 before too long.

AUD/USD is headed to .73c in my view but this may take some time. Patience required.

EUR/USD has the potential to really hurt some of the big shorts out there but personally I feel a bit nervous about being overly long and I prefer to look elsewhere. Similarly with USD/JPY; it will head towards 100 eventually but the market might already be too short the JPY crosses.

The move back above 1.10 in EUR/USD is pivotal in my view and I expect to see further unwinding of speculative short EUR positions across the board. EUR/USD should now consolidate above 1.0950 and start making fresh highs for 2020.

AUD/USD is showing no signs of making any significant dips and it keeps grinding higher in the face of ostensibly negative headlines out of China. I still think we will see .73/.74 on this run.

USD/JPY is a bit trickier with significant short positioning still in play but the big institutional Japanese investors are very long of US assets and will need to start bailing out of these at some stage. Timing will be the key in this pair.

The pair with the biggest potential is cable in my opinion. The GBP is being pushed lower on the crosses with more Brexit-related negativity but once this is priced back into the market., then I feel that cable could start a nose-bleed short-covering rally. I’m looking to build an aggressive position and am hoping to get lucky on the timing (as no one likes sitting for weeks on a big position in sideways markets!). Short-term sentiment is still fragile so I’m thinking we may see levels back around 1.2100 first before the rocket gets launched Call me mad but I see a 20 big figure rally in cables’ future.

I know I said last time that I was going to stay away from cable until I had more information but I got impatient and I have a small long position, a little out of the money. The latest Brexit stoushes between Brussels and London have put the “no deal” words back on the front pages and that has driven EUR/GBP back up towards .90. I’m keeping a close eye on the cross and will have to decide this week whether to add or exit my cable long position. Let’s hope that we get some clear market signals.

AUD/USD is trading like a pair that wants to go higher imho. ALL of the news out of China should be very AUD negative and yet any dips are very limited. What can’t go down will do up!! I still target .73c on this pair. Any dips to the low .64s are buying opportunities imho.

Gold is also giving me no reason to sell so I’m just going to sit on that until things get silly.

Have a great week++

The AUD/USD has held up well but if global stock markets hit the skids again, the Aussie is likely to come in for some short-term punishment. I’m square here as well but am a convinced dip-buyer and will look for good risk-reward opportunities.

I’m still comfortable holding onto my long bullion trades and see no reason to exit these at the moment.