Comments on: AUD/USD: Bullish trade idea targeting 1.1200

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 21:06:45 +0000

Good point Kirill, gold has been very interesting in lot of ways. Still chatter that some very large hedge fund positions might get squeezed in Gold; break below 1515 I’m told would set off huge stops. Though danger in looking for stops to get triggered is that we miss the next up-move? Such is the trader’s lot, it’s never clear-cut 🙂

By: Kirill

Kirill — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 20:58:47 +0000

Thanx Sean, I am out of it with small profit. Overall I noticed one peculiar thing: Gold in Eur was firing up for last several days, today this rally has spilled into Gold/USD. I often watch gold, because it is a small market and sometime it shows indication of commodities risk trade direction. So in short it could be indicative that sell of/correction in commodities might be over. Again this is just an indication, but could have some interesting implication for Teflon currency.

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 20:12:14 +0000

Hi Kirill, big hedge funds have been piling into USD/CAD longs over last few weeks, just for info.

By: Kirill

Kirill — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 11:48:46 +0000

On a related subject Aud/Cad has possible double top on hourly, plus it is at the top of the range. I decided to throw a small short there. SL at the recent top

By: jack1

jack1 — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 10:18:13 +0000

Big triangle pattern on monthly. If 0.9800 can be supported, then, running a breakout of topside is higher odd. 0.97 or 1.0666 are good selling levels. Commodity price expectation is down, due to Fed QE lost its impulse to US economics. Long-term QE (5 to 10 years) may be a good research phD topic, not for widely usage ???

By: Ancien

Ancien — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 06:51:12 +0000

I am with you Kirill – it is clear to me the AUD/USD wants to go higher and confirm its teflon’s name. I daytrader ONLY and went Long last night and got out with profits – nice one. But I have to admit – I have never encountered such a difficult market to trade on. Unbelievable ‘hard’ for me to trade, even as a daytrader – I do this for years now but this is NOT so ‘simple’ as it was. Good luck Everyone!

By: Kirill

Kirill — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 03:48:36 +0000

My knowledge is limited on the subject, but resilence of aud/usd during todays reasonable sellof in risk impressed me. My feel it wants to go higher, i was itching to go long, but decided to wait through the storm first.

By: zenfxtrader

zenfxtrader — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:50:51 +0000

There is not much real evidence supporting his assumptions. i)True, but AUD economy suffers which is bearish. ii) Not on any significant scale. I read the RBA and some other economists’ analysis – the demand from reserve managers is a small fraction of overall AUD flows. iii) No evidence – just anecdotal. iv) likely true v) Likely true. So overall on his analysis AUD should be slightly bullish, but not enough to go over 1.05/1.06 in the next few months. He has missed the biggest determinant of AUD levels – the inflow due to the investment pipeline. This is coming to an end soon, tapering off from the middle of 2013 onwards. So including this aspect, I’d be bearish AUD over a 6-12 month horizon.
The technicals don’t support the bull case, unless we see a clear break out of the recent consolidation zone of 1.02 – 1.06. Until then, leave the AUD alone or trade the ranges. 🙂

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:23:54 +0000

Agreed Jordan, it was only after I read it that I realised how blinkered I have been with my AUD view. I still might be right but I think I’ll risk my money elsewhere.

By: Jordan

Jordan — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:17:41 +0000

It’s always good to see different views on the market.