Comments on: AUD/NZD probing recent lows at 1.2100

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 00:01:24 +0000

agree Kirill, when the bears turn bullish, probably near 160, then its time to sell. That’s one rule that never fails

By: Kirill

Kirill — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 23:49:22 +0000

Gbp/nzd???? It’s like trading oil to nat gas spread, kind of similar, but has nothing to do with each other…. Anyway i have looked and it is is bullish… May be I will put something there, but only if my foray in exotic land via aud/nzd would go into money :)))) but you are right gbp is bullish across the board, i am still looking for bearish entry, but it could be around 1.6… So no rush

By: Sean Lee

Sean Lee — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 22:11:46 +0000

How about GBP/NZD then Kirill, nice and exotic 🙂

By: Kirill

Kirill — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 09:58:44 +0000

Fundamentally i like kiwi on the short side in apr-sep period due to predominance of agricultuarl seaspnality in exports, but recently this sesonality is trumped by financial flows from china and japan. My original idea was purely technical and was based on constructive H1 plus possibility of double bottom on dailies. In general it is still valid, but one needs to wait for next stabilization on H1.

By: JK

JK — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 03:00:58 +0000

Maybe those AUD pushes in London two weeks ago were largely part of driving NZD higher to kill the bears or that AUD likes to race with NZD due to some correlation stuff .
I think there was also NZ bond redemption on the 14th, so the pump also enabled to cash out at attractive levels. But now it seem to be going up even more aggressively.

By: JK

JK — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:52:21 +0000

And gone! NZD can be moved fast, I guess. AUD/NZD dropped 20 pips in 2 minutes when they did the first try.
BTW, is there a fundamental rationale behind this trade?

By: Kirill

Kirill — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:50:05 +0000

It seems I was wrong on AUD/NZD, but it shows an interesting change in market behaviour. AUD is lagging in current risk on push. This in addition to false attempt to take over 1.06 recently is a first serious crack in teflonium. Will see how it handles battle of JPY/USD with 100, but my thinking that selling any decent rally in aud is the way to go. Strength of kiwi is totally beyond me, so better leave it for now.