AUD,NZD/Flows and Orders/JPY crosses

Yen crosses likely to get squeezed lower as we near year-end illiquid markets

My argument here remains the same, hedge funds have been building large positions in the Yen crosses hoping for a late rally which could ‘save’ their year. The Romney defeat has put this trade in jeopardy and as we get closer to December and much thinner markets, these positions are in danger of getting squeezed out. So forget about fundamentals and risk-sentiment, these moves will be all about market positioning and I think the risk-reward ratio favours the bears.

On an intraday basis, AUD/JPY could be of interest as we near the recent pivot level at 82.55 and a clean break below there could see more bulls head for safety. The next technical support below there is near 81.60.

AUD/USD trailing stops now reported below 1.0380 and they could also come under scrutiny in early Asian trade.

  1. I just started selling NZD/JPY yesterday after the rubbish employment numbers, I’ve already taken some profits but might still be worth selling any short term strength there.

  2. my 2 cents. I am not very much bearish for AUD at the moment and considering all southbound moves as dips ….

    AUDUSD: AUD and USD are both in minor consolidation and. Pair might remain neutral / slightly bearish and expect another leg up early next week from 350/400 to 500/550 above their will be very strong resistance as AUD bulls will start loosing steam and will need a breather at least.

    AUDJPY: Pair might retrace a bit more to 82.33(38% fib) area. Rising Channel Trend line will hopefully hold firm so I am expecting north bound move from 81.60/82.20 area to 84.00 + in coming days.

    Though AUD is not correlated to S&P for the time being but retracement approaching 50% fib level of the recent move up will at least see a minor bounce and AUD will have support from there as well along with the positive buildup in COT positions. Hope for the best

  3. Hi Asad, nice to hear from you and thanks for the informed analysis. I’ve been short for a while but just covered some a bit earlier and agree that this could be a dip before we see another push higher

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *