Flows and Orders

Winners and losers in institutional flows

I’m just reading some very thorough interbank research on who the likely winners and losers are likely to be over the next few weeks, providing nothing significant changes in the market.

  • Yen selling is likely to remain dominant, led by $5 billion worth of Toshins and aided by Japanese institutions unwinding long-term hedges. An increasingly bearish retail community also has the potential to add to Yen selling.
  • CAD selling in recent weeks has been led by hedge funds and real money funds, and this selling is expected to continue for at least 2 more weeks.
  • GBP selling is likely to increase as the exodus out of UK Gilts increases.
  • USD, EUR, NOK, and AUD are likely to benefit from inflows.
  • Latam to outperform in emerging markets.

Sounds like we should still be buying dips in the Yen crosses.

  1. Hi Mike, despite all the talk about sterling sellers, I’m only hearing about EUR/GBP selling interest so far. Moderate offers reported .8570/80 and .8590/00. Same names as sold last night at .8530.

  2. Sorry Mike, not particularly useful this time, just the 4 banks I am tuned in to do not have any buyers in the cross at the moment but obviously its coming from somewhere?

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