Wild moves on the crosses and more to come
- The AUD was the first mover, recovering after poor domestic business conditions data and taking out stops in AUD/JPY above 92.50. The market has closed above this important technical level and I’m firmly in the buy-dip camp on this cross.
- EUR/CHF was the next mover with real-money and hedge fund buyers emerging in early Europe pushing it quickly from 1.2400 to 1.2460.
- The GBP was next to move, falling heavily on poor economic data and eventually breaking support in the cable at 1.4830. EUR/GBP was a big mover, from .8600 to .8665 in the space of a few hours.
- The EUR bulls were next to come undone after Italy’s debt was downgraded and EUR/AUD fell back below 1.4000 whilst EUR/GBP gave back all of its earlier gains.
- (And I hope someone listened to me on NZD/CHF a few weeks back?)
Conclusion: Short GBP/AUD still looks like a good directional play but its already fallen quite sharply so pick your entry levels carefully. The so-called risk on trades like AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF also look like decent dip-buying plays.