When will the USD start to trend

Obviously we’ve been having some huge cross moves over the last few weeks and in my experience these events will eventually lead to a big USD move.

The greenback has surged against the JPY but lost ground against the EUR, it’s made modest ground against the GBP and the CHF but is basically flat to slightly lower against the AUD and the NZD. Sentiment seems to be turning slightly positive for the USD, despite the fiscal cliff political shenanigans, and at the moment I am of the opinion that these big cross moves will end with a much higher USD. Not against the EUR perhaps, where we will probably see extended range trading somewhere in the 1.30’s but perhaps against the GBP (1.50 or below?), the CHF (1.00 or higher), the JPY (close to 100.00) and the AUD (back below 1.0000).

My trade of choice is the USD/CHF, where I’m looking to build a big long position for a possible 15 big figure rally. Well you gotta have a plan 🙂

  1. Hi Sean Nice to find you again, i used to follow you on forexlive but you werent there searched online and found you here.

    Hope all is well with you, nice to find you again.

    Can i just ask your opinion on eu/usd today any chance you see a retrace back below 1.3500 than move back up again from here.

    Thank s in dvance

  2. Hello Sean,
    Let me tell you that I love your analysis and would like to add that your coverage, advice and openness are greatly appreciated.

  3. Great to hear from you again Jahed. As you know, Asia often retraces some of the overnight moves as its first action so I think there’s a reasonable chance that we could see a 30/40 pip dip in early Tokyo.

  4. And thanks for the info on the hedge fund selling in au/usd yesterday , worked out really well straight down from 1.0471. Made some pips.

  5. Hi Sean,
    Been quiet for few weeks and back in action. Looking to build some positions heading toward EU open for USD/CHF at 0.91 level
    if it goes up to .9125, will be adding more looking towards the 1.0 mark. lets see how it goes.
    I fancy going long EUR/CHF as well at 1.2324

  6. Good luck Danny. I’m long smalls in USD/CHF but still looking a bit heavy I’m afraid. Best be patient until it starts to turn higher then have a more aggressive go.

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