USD/JPY: Trendline resistance holds overnight
If in doubt, have a look at the technical picture an old mentor of mine used to say. The 4-hour chart is showing that prices tested exactly the bearish trendline from 103.80 through 102.50 (see chart). There was a 5-wave downmove from 103.80 to 93.80 and the fact that it retraced around 40% is also a moderately bearish signal. Offsetting this of course is the longer-term bull trend.
Any post-FOMC euphoria for USD/JPY is mis-conceived in my view. If the Fed starts withdrawing its stimuli, the world economy will suffer, and FX risk trades will be hit. I can understand USD bulls getting revved up about the AUD/USD to some extent, but not in USD/JPY or USD/CHF. I’ve got a small short USD/JPY position from overnight with a stop now above .9870.