AUD,NZD/FXWW News/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Trendline resistance holds overnight

If in doubt, have a look at the technical picture an old mentor of mine used to say. The 4-hour chart is showing that prices tested exactly the bearish trendline from 103.80 through 102.50 (see chart). There was a 5-wave downmove from 103.80 to 93.80 and the fact that it retraced around 40% is also a moderately bearish signal. Offsetting this of course is the longer-term bull trend.

Any post-FOMC euphoria for USD/JPY is mis-conceived in my view. If the Fed starts withdrawing its stimuli, the world economy will suffer, and FX risk trades will be hit. I can understand USD bulls getting revved up about the AUD/USD to some extent, but not in USD/JPY or USD/CHF. I’ve got a small short USD/JPY position from overnight with a stop now above .9870.

  1. Just looking at that Jason. I’m just doing an overall analysis of EUR/USD and the bullish case there is starting to look very strong. I started buying EUR/AUD at 123 so I have difficulty in getting overly bullish at 143 but the technical set-up does look very bullish indeed still

  2. Hi, Sean, I think the typical risk-off-risk-on scenario is not obvious nowadays. Yesterday SP500 take a huge dive but USD/YEN didn’t bother a lot. The current dominant theme could be a strong Dollar against majors as Fed is the only CB talking dialing back QE program.

  3. hy sean,

    im also planning to go short in eurjpy or usdjpy, where did you entry?

    as the usdjpy is nearing its yesterday high, that might be a good entry

  4. I sold last night just above present levels Chris. Market getting a bit bullish USD/JPY ahead of comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda so you might get better levels to sell if you wait a bit? Stops above 9880 I think

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *