FXWW News/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Trend-line support looming near 98.20

  • We have a thrice tested trend-line coming in near 98.20 (see chart);
  • Short-term sentiment is bearish with market turning against the USD but also unexpectedly risk-averse post FOMC;
  • Market reports suggest that the big macro funds remain quite long of USD/JPY.

If you want to be long USD, this pair seems like the obvious choice but we have a decision to make; is the recent stagnation near 100.00 a sign of consolidation or a sign that the market can’t go any higher? I’m not sure, but as year-end nears and this pair still fails to break higher, those big long positions will start getting trigger happy.

That doesn’t help us much on intraday basis, but my best suggestion is to wait and see what happens at trend-line support near 98.20. If it is fiercely defended, then the bulls still have some ammunition left and we can try buying with tight stops. If it breaks and gaps lower, then the momentum will shift and we should be in rally-selling mode.

  1. Morning Sean, I guess I was Trigger Happy with posting too early today on your other article regarding this pair… sorry! I guess I will have to wait it out again with this Pair. Were at 98.4 range AGAIN, and I have a feeling were going to Break the trend-line, and looking at the 4 hour Chart showing the Aug.27 low of 96.81 and the High of 100.6 on Sept 11th, we might just go back down to that Low, and not the 95 area where People are thinking and then from there it will be a Good enough position for everyone involved in this pair to go LONG. I’m Still a Newbie, Just my Crazy Idea, Either way I’m waiting for this Pair to make a Break in either direction so I can make a Move on it!

  2. Morning Abdullah, you have the most important attribute for this pair which is passion. Don’t worry about being a Newbie, trust your instincts; won’t always play the way you think but your trading will be much more confident and committed when you are following ideas which you firmly believe in.

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